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双语：维护全球战略稳定，减少核冲突风险（中英对照）

维护全球战略稳定，减少核冲突风险

Maintaining Global Strategic Stability, Reducing Risks of Nuclear Conflicts

——傅聪司长在第十六届北京军控研讨会上的讲话

– Statement by H.E. Mr. Fu Cong, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control of MFA, at the 16th PIIC Beijing Seminar on International Security

2019年10月16日，中国深圳

Shenzhen, 16 October 2019

尊敬的各位来宾，

Distinguished guests,

感谢主办方邀请我参加今天的研讨会。我主要谈谈对全球战略安全形势的看法，以及对如何维护全球战略稳定、减少核冲突风险的一些思考。

At the outset, I would like to thank the co-hosts for inviting me to address this seminar. It is a pleasure to share my observations on the global strategic security situation as well as my thoughts on how to maintain global strategic stability and reduce the risks of nuclear conflict.

近年来，全球战略安全形势急剧恶化，单边主义和霸权行径甚嚣尘上，严重冲击以国际法为基础的国际秩序。美国重拾冷战思维，不断“毁约退群”，推卸国际责任，谋求压倒性军事优势。受此影响，当前国际战略安全形势呈现以下几个鲜明特点。

The global strategic security situation has dramatically worsened over the past few years. Unilateralism and hegemonism is rising in international relations, posing major threats to the international order based upon international law. Returning to the cold war mentality, the US has withdrawn from or renegaded on a host of multilateral arms control agreements, with the aim of seeking unilateral and overwhelming military superiority. These actions have fundamentally changed the international strategic security landscape.

一是大国互信与合作面临危机。特朗普政府奉行“美国优先”政策，将中、俄定位为主要战略竞争者，大举加强战略能力建设。美方的《核态势审议报告》基调充满对抗性，甚至量身定制针对中、俄的核威慑战略。美国务院主管军控事务的高官在各种场合言必称中国，极尽抹黑之能事。这些做法破坏大国战略互信，增加战略安全领域的大国协调难度。

First, mutual trust and cooperation between major powers have been severely eroded. In addition to the “American first” policy, the US administration has publicly targeted China and Russia as major strategic competitors, and has taken a series of measures to significantly enhance its strategic capabilities. The keynote of the US Nuclear Posture Review is confrontation, with nuclear deterrent strategies specifically tailored for China and Russia. Unsubstantiated accusations against China have become a constant fixture of all the public speeches and statements of the senior officials of the U.S. State Department in charge of arms control and non-proliferation. Such behaviors are undermining the strategic trust and creating obstacles for coordination on strategic security issues between the two countries.

二是全球战略失衡严重受损。美提高核武器在国家安全战略中地位，奉行更具进攻性与实战性的核威慑战略；加快推进全球反导系统建设和部署，研发全球即时打击系统；加强网络军事力量建设，强化新兴科技在军事领域的应用。这些谋求全方位战略安全优势的行为，只会制造战略安全困境，最终也将反噬美自身。

Second, the global strategic stability is being seriously undermined. Putting more emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in its security strategy, the US has adopted a more aggressive nuclear deterrence strategy oriented towards war-fighting capabilities, while at the same time accelerating the development and deployment of global missile defense systems, as well as the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) system. It has also publicly announced outer space and cyber space as battleground and has stepped up its buildup of military capabilities in these and other new domains. These actions which are aimed at seeking overwhelming strategic advantages will not only bring about strategic security dilemmas for other countries, but will eventually harm the US own national security interests.

三是国际规则和多边机制受到冲击。美退出伊朗核问题全面协议，损害国际核不扩散机制；抛弃《中导条约》，导致国际核裁军进程严重受挫；抛出“为核裁军创造环境倡议”，推卸自身核裁军责任，损害裁谈会等现有多边军控机制权威。美方上述行径，加剧了全球战略安全领域的失序、失衡。

Third, international norms and multilateral regimes are under severe stress. The unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear issue has gravely damaged the international non-proliferation regime. The U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty has resulted in major setbacks for international endeavors of nuclear disarmament. The US initiative on “Creating Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND)” , which is widely perceived by the international community as a ploy to shirk its own responsibilities on nuclear disarmament, has the potential to undermine the authority of the existing multilateral arms control mechanisms, such as the Conference on Disarmament (CD) and the United Nations. These behaviors can only aggravate the imbalance and disorder in the field of global strategic security and international arms control.

四是国际安全治理赤字突出。当前，国际社会关于战略稳定的基本共识正在受到挑战。同时，随着时代进步和科技发展，外空、网络、人工智能等新兴科技冲击以核力量为基础的战略稳定。新疆域规则缺失，成为国际安全治理的新问题。

Fourth, the deficit of global security governance is becoming more prominent. Some basic consensus of the international community underlining global strategic stability are being challenged. Meanwhile, with the rapid scientific advancement, emerging technologies in outer space, cyberspace and artificial intelligence (AI) have also brought about new developments that are eroding the global strategic stability traditionally based on nuclear weapons. The absence of international rules regulating these new domains is posing new challenges to international security governance.

如果全球战略稳定进一步受到损害，核军备竞赛死灰复燃，核冲突风险上升将成为必然恶果。对于如何维护全球战略稳定、减少核风险，中方有以下几点建议：

Continued erosion of global strategic stability would inevitably lead to a relapse of nuclear arms race. And the risks of nuclear conflicts would increase. To prevent such a situation from happening, China would like to propose the following:

一是降低核武器在国家安全政策中的作用。所有核武器国家均应重申“核战争打不赢、也打不得”。放弃先发制人核打击、扩大核威慑范围、研发低当量核武器、预警即发射、研发低当量核弹头等政策。明确承诺“不首先使用”核武器，将核力量维持在维护国家安全需要的最低水平。

First, all nuclear-weapon states should take measures to diminish the role of nuclear weapons in their national security doctrines. This could include reiterating the famous quotation that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”, abandoning the strategy of pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons or the launch-on-warning strategy, and refraining from expanding the scope of nuclear deterrence, or the development of low yield nuclear warheads. All nuclear-weapon states should adopt the “no first use” policy and keep their nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national defence.

二是核武器国家承诺向无核武器国家提供安全保障。这有助于减少核武器扩散的动因，也有助于减少核风险。国际社会尽早谈判缔结向无核武器国家无条件提供消极安全保证的国际法律文书。

Second, nuclear-weapon states should provide unconditional and unambiguous security assurances to non-nuclear-weapon States. This would contribute to reducing the motivations for nuclear proliferation, which will in turn help reduce nuclear risks. An international legal instrument on negative security assurances to all non-nuclear-weapon States should be negotiated as soon as possible.

三是战略能力建设和部署不得破坏战略稳定。核武器国家发展和部署全球反导系统，势必削弱其他国家核威慑和核反击能力，损害大国互信和全球战略稳定。美方在亚太地区部署中导，势将诱发大国对抗和军备竞赛风险。

Third, countries should exercise restraint in building and deploying strategic capabilities, so as not to undermine global strategic stability. The development and deployment of a global missile defense system by one nuclear-weapon country may jeopardize or even neutralize the nuclear deterrent capabilities of other states and would be detrimental to mutual trust between major powers and undermine global strategic stability. The deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region by the US would also trigger confrontation and increase the risks of an arms race.

四是坚持理性务实核裁军路线。核裁军进程应遵循“维护全球战略稳定”和“各国安全不受减损”等原则。美俄作为拥有最大核武库的国家应切实履行特殊、优先责任，确保新START条约延期，并进一步大幅实质削减核武器，为其他核武器国家加入多边核裁军谈判创造条件。

Fourth, nuclear disarmament should be pursued in a reasonable and pragmatic manner and guided by the principles of “maintaining global strategic stability” and “undiminished security for all”. As the countries possessing the largest nuclear arsenals, the U.S. and Russia have a special and primary responsibility for nuclear disarmament. They should extend the New START, and, on that basis, further reduce their nuclear weapons, so as to create conditions for other nuclear-weapon states to participate in the negotiation process of nuclear disarmament.

五是加强核政策与核战略对话。越是国际安全形式复杂，核武器国家越应加强核战略与核政策对话，客观看待彼此战略意图，切实理解和尊重彼此安全关切，防止战略误判引发意外和危机，避免大国竞争成为自我实现的预言。同时，核武器国家和无核武器国家应加强沟通对话，共同推动实现无核武器世界。

Fifth, nuclear-weapon-states should enhance dialogue on nuclear doctrines and strategies. The complicated international security situation highlights the urgency for more dialogues in order to objectively assess each other’s strategic intentions, and fully understand and respect each other’s security concerns, so as to prevent accidents and crisis caused by strategic misjudgments, and avoid major powers competition becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states should also strengthen communications to work together towards the ultimate goal of achieving a world free of nuclear weapons.

六是要巩固核不扩散问题政治外交解决方向。伊核全面协议是国际核不扩散机制的重要组成部分，理应得到完整、有效执行。朝鲜半岛无核化有助于促进地区和平稳定，有利于减少核风险，有关各方应维护半岛对话缓和势头。我们也要积极落实去年联大相关决定，推动建立中东无大规模杀伤性武器区取得进展。

Sixth, nuclear non-proliferation issues should be resolved through political and diplomatic means. The JCPOA is an important component of the international non-proliferation architecture, and should be implemented fully and effectively. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will contribute to regional peace and stability and the reduction of nuclear risks. In this respect, parties concerned should spare no efforts in maintaining the momentum of dialogue and detente on the Peninsula. Efforts should also be made to achieve progress on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction through the active implementation of the relevant UNGA decision adopted last year.

七是妥善应对新型科技带来的挑战。外空、网络、人工智能等技术迅猛发展，对全球战略稳定带来深刻复杂影响。国际社会应推动战略安全新疆域建章立制，对新型技术在军事领域的应用予以必要规范，以新办法应对新挑战，以完善全球安全治理。

Seventh, we should properly address the challenges created by emerging technologies. The rapid development of technologies in outer space, cyberspace and AI has brought about complicated and profound impacts on the global strategic stability. Military applications of these emerging technologies need to be regulated and we need new approaches to deal with these new threats.

中国核战略与核政策一直保持高度稳定性、连贯性与一致性，在今年出台的《新时代的中国国防》白皮书有明确论述。中国始终恪守在任何时候和任何情况下不首先使用核武器的政策，明确承诺无条件不对无核武器国家和无核武器地区使用或威胁使用核武器。中国一直将自身核力量规模限制在维护国家安全所需的最低限度，过去没有、今后也不会参加核军备竞赛。中国从未在外国领土上部署核武器，也不向任何国家提供核保护伞。可以说，中国在核战略方面展示了最大限度透明，在核力量发展上保持了极大克制，在核武器使用方面采取极为慎重态度。这本身就是维护全球战略稳定、减少核风险的积极因素。

Turning to China, China’s nuclear doctrine and policy are highly stable, coherent and consistent, which has been reiterated clearly in China’s National Defense in the New Era, the white paper issued this year. China has always adhered to the policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and has unconditionally committed itself not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States and nuclear-weapon-free zones. China has kept its nuclear force at the minimal level required for national security. China never has, and never will participate in any kind of nuclear arms race. China never deployed nuclear weapons in other countries, nor provided nuclear umbrella to other countries. China has shown maximum transparency in its nuclear strategy, exercised the utmost restraint on the development of its nuclear force, and adopted an extremely prudent attitude toward the use of nuclear weapons. This posture in itself constitutes a positive factor for maintaining global strategic stability and reducing nuclear risks.

中方高度重视并积极参与五核国合作进程，大力推动该机制恢复生机活力并取得积极成果。中方于今年1月举办五核国北京会议，推动各方达成多项共识，包括将核政策与核战略作为五核国交流常设议题。这体现了大国协调合作应对国际安全挑战的积极态度，增强了国际社会对维护全球战略稳定的信心。中国将继续推动五核国在战略安全领域凝聚共识，以大国协调代替大国竞争，以合作共赢代替零和博弈，为促进世界和平与稳定作出贡献。

China attaches great importance to and actively participated in the cooperation of the P5, and has done its fair share to help revitalize the P5 process and achieve concrete outcomes. As coordinator of the P5 cooperation process for the last year, China hosted the P5 Conference in Beijing last January, at which consensus on a number of important issues was reached, including making “dialogue on nuclear doctrines and policies” a permanent agenda item for the P5 process. This demonstrates a positive attitude on the part of the P5 to jointly address the challenges in international security. China will continue to work with the other P5 partners to forge consensus in the field of strategic security, and will continue to advocate major power coordination instead of competition, and win-win cooperation instead of zero-sum games, so as to make the world a better and safer place to live.

我想借此机会重点谈一谈美方退出《中导条约》和推动中美俄三边军控谈判问题。

In this connection, I would like to take this opportunity to talk briefly about the collapse of the INF Treaty, and the so-called “China-U.S.-Russia trilateral arms control negotiation”.

中方对美国退出《中导条约》深表遗憾并坚决反对。此举将对全球战略平衡与稳定、亚太和欧洲地区和平与安全及国际军控体系直接产生消极影响。美退约后不到三周即进行了陆基中短程巡航导弹试验，充分表明了其退约真实意图是“自我松绑”，放手发展先进导弹，谋求单方面军事优势。

China expresses its deep regret over the U.S.’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty. It is of China’s view that the U.S. withdrawal will have a direct negative impact on global strategic stability, on peace and security in Europe and Asia-Pacific region, as well as the international arms control regime. The fact that the U.S. has conducted a ground-based intermediate-range cruise missile test less than three weeks after its withdrawal from the Treaty shows that its withdrawal was meant to free its hands in developing advanced weaponry in order to seek unilateral military advantage.

中方坚决反对美寻求在亚太地区部署陆基中导。中国拥有的陆基中短程导弹全部部署在本国境内，完全出于防御目的，不威胁任何国家，特别是不会打到美国本土。而美军事上偏重前沿部署，明显具有进攻性。如美执意在亚太部署，就是在中国“家门口”挑衅，中国绝不会坐视自身利益受损，将不得不采取必要的反制措施。中方希望美国及有关国家在此方面保持克制，谨慎行事，不要采取错误举动。

China firmly opposes the U.S deployment of ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. It’s true that China possesses intermediate-range missiles, but all of them are based on our own territory. And they are purely for defensive purposes, and do not pose threat to anyone, least of all the US. In contrast, the U.S. missiles, if deployed, would be in a forward-deployment mode, virtually on China’s doorsteps. Should that happen, China would have no choice but to take necessary countermeasures in defence of its national security. China urges the U.S. and other countries concerned to exercise restraint and prudence on this matter.

对美国提议的中美俄三边军控谈判，中方已多次明确表示反对。我想再次强调，中国与美俄的核武库不在一个量级，中国无意参加与美俄的核裁军谈判。美国和俄罗斯作为世界上拥有最大和最先进核武库的国家，须承担特殊优先责任，进一步大幅削减其核武器，为其他国家参加核裁军谈判创造条件，这是国际社会的普遍共识。中国不参加三边军控谈判并不意味着不参加国际核裁军努力。中方一直并将继续积极参与联合国、裁谈会、五核国等多边机制框架下的国际军控谈判和讨论。

On the so-called trilateral negotiations proposed by the U.S., China has made its position very clear on repeated occasions, i.e. China has no interest in participating in a nuclear arms reduction negotiation with the U.S. or Russia, given the huge gap between China’s nuclear arsenal and those of the U.S. and Russia. It’s the consensus view of the international community that the U.S. and Russia, as the countries possessing the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenals, bear special and primary responsibilities on nuclear disarmament, and should further drastically reduce their nuclear weapons, so as to create conditions for other countries to participate in the nuclear disarmament negotiations. Although it’s not the time for China to participate in the trilateral negotiation at this stage, it does not mean China is not participating in the international nuclear disarmament efforts. China has taken, and will continue to take, an active part in the international arms control negotiations and discussions under multilateral framework, such as the UN, the Conference on Disarmament, and the P5 cooperation process.

最后我想强调，无论国际形势如何变幻，中国都将致力于和平发展，积极践行多边主义，努力维护全球战略稳定，为国际军控与裁军进程注入动力，为促进人类和平和安全的崇高事业做出贡献。

In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that no matter how the international situation may change, China will remain committed to peaceful development, and will continue to advocate for multilateralism and for global strategic stability. China will always be a positive force for international arms control and disarmament efforts and a contributor to the lofty cause of safeguarding peace and security of the mankind.

谢谢大家！

Thank you!

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