International Relations Will Never Go Back to Barbarian Era

19.5.26国际关系岂能退回到野蛮时代

Wu Yuehe

五月荷

What will happen if a driver shifts to reverse gear and hits the pedal to the floor on a busy street? The answer is obvious — a series of scratches, crashes and losses, forming a chain reaction. What if such a case is happening to the global industrial chain, or in the development of the international relations? Now, the US is turning the "what if" to reality.

车水马龙的道路上，一个驾车人忽然挂起倒挡，还踩下油门“撒野”——结果可想而知，各式剐蹭、碰撞、损失，形成连锁效应。这样的事情，如果发生在全球产业链上呢？如果发生在国际关系发展进程中呢？现在，已经不用“如果”，美方竟然就这样做了！微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

The wayward decision of the US government on its foreign trade policy is considered ridiculous by the global media. For instance, a European media outlet has warned Washington not to take China as the Wild West.

美国政府当前关于对外贸易的偏执决策，被国际舆论批评为“荒诞的倒退”。欧洲媒体还对美方发出警示，不要把中国当成狂野的美国西部。

Though the US is claiming again and again that it is a winner in the trade war, the international community just thinks the other way, because the arbitrary acts of Washington are stupid which have ruthlessly given a blow to the US agriculture and hurt the interests of US consumers and enterprises. In addition, the acts also severely damaged the global industrial chain that once greatly benefited the US.

虽然美方一再凭空自吹“美国赢了”，但国际舆论纷纷说“美国输了”。原因很简单，美方的撒野是愚蠢的，不顾一切地打击了美国农业、攫取了美国消费者和企业的利益，也严重冲击了原本使美国大大获益的全球产业链。

By provoking the trade disputes against China, the US has worsened its agriculture performance, which is an issue receiving huge attention. With the fall of price of bulk commodities, the US farmers have seen halved income in the past 6 years. The declining sales of their agricultural products, which were largely exported to China, are also adding insult to injury for them. The net income of US farmers, plunging by 16 percent last year, went back to the same level of that 10 years ago when financial crisis broke out. Now, with the US escalating the trade friction, the US farmers are seeing deteriorating situations. In a letter issued by the American Farm Bureau Federation on May 15, the organization said lost exports were exacerbating the burden of an industry already in hard times, calling for an end to the trade war.

挑起对华贸易争端，让美国农业雪上加霜，这是当前备受关注的情况。随着国际市场大宗商品价格下跌，美国农民收入在过去6年已经减少一半，原本大量出口中国的农产品现在销路遇阻，更让他们愁上添愁。2018年，美国农民净收入同比下降16%，跌至10年前金融危机发生时的水平。现在美方升级贸易摩擦，美国农民更加叫苦不迭，美国农会联合会5月15日不得不再次呼吁立即停止贸易战，强调美国农业正因出口损失扩大而陷入困境。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

The Q2 economic statistics of the US heralded risks. According to the US Department of Commerce, the indexes of US consumption and manufacturing both experienced slide in April because of the current trade tension, global economic slowdown and the fadeaway of the 2017 tax reform. The Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System also released a set of data, saying that the industrial production of the US fell by 0.5 percent in April from March and that in the first quarter also dropped by 2.1 percent at an annualized rate.

美国经济第二季度开局数据也不乏风险征兆。美国商务部上周公布的数据显示，在贸易形势紧张、全球经济放缓和2017年税改效应渐消的综合影响下，美国4月消费领域和制造业的指标均出现下滑。美国联邦储备委员会数据还显示，美国4月工业产值较3月下降0.5%，环比降幅扩大，且第一季度折合成年率的工业产值下降2.1%。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

However, the US decision makers are turning a blind eye to the severe economic situation, not knowing how profoundly economic globalization has reshaped the world and ignoring the practical significance and far-reaching impacts of the international division of labor. What they are doing is merely moving the manufacturing back to the US in a barbarian way. But will this approach work? An article published by German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung may answer the question. It believes that backwardness won't help, especially in the US. At the beginning of the last century, the US specifically eliminated its traditional industries and placed more importance on service and finance sectors. This move resulted in not only a loss of manufacturing jobs, but also the skills related. To produce the products, it used to import from other countries, the US has to regain a giant workforce that is capable of doing so. However, the country is currently bothered by a lack of human resources in many regions. In addition, as international observers said, most of the American consumers are not likely to be willing to pay $2,000 for a "made-in-the-US" smart phone that they could get at only half of the price before.

但是，美国决策者对美国经济之忧继续保持选择性失明。他们浑然不知经济全球化已经何等深刻地塑造了世界，毫不理会国际分工的现实意义和深远影响，只是一再使“蛮劲”试图把制造业立即全部搬回美国。问题是，行得通吗？《南德意志报》最近刊文指出“恰恰在美国，倒退是完全不可能的”——上个世纪初，美国有意识淘汰陈旧工业，向服务业与金融业转型，美国因此流失的不仅是制造业岗位，还有众多制造业岗位的职业技能。美国现在想自己生产进口的那些产品，需要首先重新拥有具有相关职业技能的劳动力大军。但现实是，美国许多地区正受到劳动力短缺困扰。况且，正如国际观察家们所言，绝大多数美国消费者恐怕不会愿意为了追求“美国制造”而斥资2000美元去购买原本只要1000美元的智能手机。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

The US decision makers are always anxious as they want to but not able to make progress. When seeing more and more countries are joining hands for common development through complementary advantages and labor division, they are afraid that the "greatness" of the US might not be that shining in today's world. They even get mad at the facts that other countries are constantly making remarkable innovations. The US Department of Commerce recently placed Chinese tech giant Huawei and tens of affiliates on its so-called "Entity List" — a move that bans the telecom company from buying parts and components from American firms without US government approval. In addition, the US government has also adopted a "policy of presumption of denial" when reviewing applications for such approval. By interfering with the naturally developed global industrial chain by supremacy, the US has adopted the most barbarian method ever in the history of modern international economic and trade relations. It is nothing but ridiculous and hegemonic.

欲进而不能，美国决策者的焦虑心态时时作祟。他们看着世界上越来越多国家携起手来通过优势互补、分工合作实现共同发展，非常担心自己显得不再那么“伟大”。看到其他国家在创新领域不断取得卓著成绩，他们就蹿火了——美国商务部日前宣布，正式将华为公司及其数十家关联企业列入出口管制实体名单。这意味着美国公司在未经批准的情况下不得销售产品和技术给华为，且美国政府在审批相关交易申请时能以“假定威胁”为由拒绝。荒谬霸道至极！这是用强权手段赤裸裸干预市场自然形成的全球产业链，堪称当代国际经贸关系史上最野蛮的行径。

America is being ripped off. "We're a debtor nation, and we have to tax, we have to tariff, we have to protect this country." Such voices of the US reflect only superficial views, unreason and lack of morality. These voices aroused strong reaction from the international media. A German media outlet said that the international division of labor in today's world has created hundreds of millions of jobs in emerging industrial countries, which not only promoted social development of these countries, but also improved the livelihood of the developed countries by lowering commodity prices. The fact of the US being a debtor has no relation with other countries. International media noted that China, as a major creditor nation of the US, is the most important sponsor of the latter, and the US accusation on China is totally unreasonable.

“美国正在被人占便宜。我们是一个债务国，我们必须加征关税，我们必须保护这个国家。”美方如此喋喋不休之论，怎么看都是短见识、不讲理、缺道德。国际舆论纷纷作出反应，都感觉有必要跟它理论一下是与非。德国有媒体发文强调：“如今的国际产业分工，给新兴工业国家带去了上亿工作岗位，促使其社会发展水平上升，而且也通过降低物价提高了发达国家人民的生活水平。”至于说美国是一个债务国，这个板子更打不到别国身上。国际媒体纷纷提出，中国是美国最主要的债权国，这一事实本身意味着中国是美国最重要的资助者，美方对中国的指责就是无理取闹。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

The trade war is not a game. It disrupts global production and supply chain, and then further impedes the development of world economy. Most of the economists polled by Reuters believe that the US is facing increased chances of recession because of its trade friction with China. The poll put the chances of that happening in the next two years at 40%, 5 percentages higher from a month ago. It still lingers in the minds of many how the US recession had encumbered global economy 10 years ago, which makes the world wonder that how far will Washington go on the wrong way with its stick of tariffs nowadays.

值得强调的是，贸易战绝非儿戏，扰乱了全球生产、供应链，就会连锁破坏世界经济发展。接受路透社最新问卷调查的大多数经济学家都认为，中美贸易摩擦增加了美国经济衰退风险。该项调查显示，未来两年美国经济陷入衰退的可能性升至40%，该指标比上月多了5个百分点。10年前美国金融危机拖累世界经济的往事，让人记忆犹新。如今全世界都在看，美方究竟还要举着关税大棒在错误路径上走多远？

Cooperation calls for sincerity from both sides, while confrontation needs only unilateral provocation. It's obvious to all that China never fears any threats and is ready to cope with challenges. The US, though acting arbitrarily at present, will finally exhaust its energy one day. The US has overestimated its ability to muscle the Chinese into accepting its will, and underestimated China's ability to punch it in places that hurt, said Ryan Hass, expert on China issues from the Brookings Institution.

合作，双方都有诚意才能实现；对抗，有一方挑起就足够了。谁都清楚，偌大的中国完全不会惧怕别人冲上来叫阵、下战表，也完全做好了应对各种挑战的准备。美方选择狂撒野、强逞能，但总有耗尽气力的时候。正如美国布鲁金斯学会中国问题专家瑞安·哈斯所指出，美国现政府既高估了其迫使中方按照美方意愿行事的能力，又低估了中方反击美方的杀伤力。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂

The history is always moving forward and is never reversed by anyone. Those who wish to reverse the trend of history would get only short-term profits, and by doing so, they are also tarnishing their so-called "greatness". Economic globalization is an irreversible trend of time, and the world is a community with a shared future in which the interests of countries are closely knitted. Under the guidance of the human civilization development, the international relations will never go back to the barbarian era, and time will prove that.

历史的车轮永远是往前走，不以任何人的意志为转移，无论他是谁。开倒车的，充其量只能得一时之利；为求一己之利而冒天下之大不韪，就更无从谈起他们标榜的“伟大”。经济全球化是不可逆转的时代潮流，各国人民命运休戚与共，各国利益相互交融。在人类文明之光引领下，国际关系不会退回到野蛮时代。时间，终将证明这一切。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号高斋翻译学堂