【英中双语】IMF第一副总裁大卫•利普顿亚洲金融论坛2018主题演讲

Ensuring a Sustainable Global Recovery

确保实现可持续的全球复苏

January 15, 2018

IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton

国际货币基金组织第一副总裁大卫·利普顿

Asian Financial Forum, Hong Kong

亚洲金融论坛，香港

Ladies and gentlemen,

女士们、先生们：

Thank you for your kind welcome to Hong Kong. I am honored to speak at the opening of this conference.

感谢诸位的热忱欢迎。我非常荣幸能在此次会议的开幕式上发言。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

I would like to offer an overview of the outlook for the global economy and the Asia-Pacific region. And since the fortunes of both are so closely linked to China, I will also outline some key policy challenges facing Beijing.

我想简要介绍一下全球经济及亚太地区的前景。鉴于两者的命运与中国紧密相联，我还将谈谈北京面临的一些重大政策挑战。

Let’s start with the big picture. The IMF will issue an update to our World Economic Outlook next week. The bottom line is that the cyclical recovery in the global economy is going from strength to strength. The signs point to faster growth across all regions.

首先，让我们从大的格局开始 。基金组织将于下周发布“世界经济展望最新预测 ”。基本结论是全球经济的周期性复苏力度不断增强。各种迹象表明，所有地区的增长都在加快。

That said, we must also recognize that the global economy is in a late stage of the long and gradual recovery from the global financial crisis. With economic slack in advanced economies diminishing, it is not clear how long the good news will continue. 

尽管如此，我们必须认识到全球经济正处在全球金融危机之后出现的长期和渐进复苏的后期阶段。随着发达经济体的经济疲软程度逐步下降，好消息将持续多久仍然未知。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

That is why the IMF’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, has been saying that the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining. Our meaning is clear: now is the time to address vulnerabilities and structural issues that could impede sustained growth, and to take steps to enable stronger growth once cyclical recovery is no longer driving the economy.

这就是为什么基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜 • 拉加德一再强调应该“未雨绸缪”，即在天晴之时修补屋顶。我们想传达的信息很明确，即现在正是采取措施的时候，以解决可能阻碍持续增长的脆弱性和结构性问题，并在周期性复苏不再能推动经济增长的情况下促进更强劲的增长。 

Investment and Trade Rise

Right now, the sun is shining on the global economy. Capital-intensive investment and consumer demand are rising.  Because investment is import intensive, that is lifting world trade at a rate well above GDP growth, which helps spread recovery more broadly across the globe. Unemployment in many advanced economies is falling. Inflation remains subdued even though the major central banks continue to pursue the accommodative monetary policies.

目前全球经济形势仍然一片大好。资本密集型投资和消费需求正在上升。由于投资为进口密集型，因此促使世界贸易增长率远远高于GDP增长率，这有助于实现更广泛的全球复苏。许多发达经济体的失业率正在下降。即使各主要央行继续执行宽松的货币政策，通胀依然低迷。 

European growth is not only rebounding, it is more evenly distributed than in many years. The U.S. is experiencing a rebound that should receive an additional, short-term lift from tax reform.

欧洲的经济增长不仅出现反弹，而且与过去许多年相比，分布更加均匀。美国经济正经历反弹，税收改革应该为增长带来额外和短期提升效应。

Asia contributes two-thirds of global growth. With strong consumption and investment, rising exports, and steady capital inflows, the outlook for the region remains bright.

全球增长的三分之二来自亚洲。在强劲消费和投资、出口增长和资本稳步流入的带动下，该地区的前景依然非常看好。

China alone is providing one-third of global growth. Japan has been growing above potential for several quarters. The Korean economy has held up well despite the tensions on the peninsula. India is reclaiming its place as a growth leader after a short slowdown. And the ASEAN-5 have gained momentum in response to higher investment and increased exports.

仅中国就为全球增长作出了三分之一的贡献。日本持续几个季度超过潜在增长率。尽管半岛局势紧张，韩国经济仍然保持良好势头。在经历短暂放缓之后，印度重拾增长领头羊的地位。在投资高涨和出口增长的带动下，东盟五国的增长势头增强。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

Challenges and Risks

That is all good news.  But there are challenges and risks on the horizon.  First, the rapid appreciation of asset valuations over the past year should heighten our concern about potential financial market vulnerabilities.

这些都是好消息。但是，前景也存在挑战和风险。首先，过去一年资产估值迅速上升应该引起我们对潜在金融市场脆弱性的高度关注。

Second, there is also the risk of unexpected monetary policy and exchange rate developments that prompt a change in capital market sentiment—and thus a sudden reversal of capital flows.

第二，还存在货币政策和汇率发生意外变化的风险，这会导致资本市场情绪转变，以及资本流动突然逆转。

Third, geopolitical tensions have risen, raising the possibilities for protectionist action or for overt security conflicts. 

第三，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，这可能引发保护主义行为或公然的安全冲突。

Fourth, a cloud hangs over the global economy’s medium-term growth prospects.  Wage growth remains weak in many advanced economies, and productivity growth is lagging. This reflects limited progress on the part of both advanced and emerging market countries on the structural reforms that could lift potential growth and, ultimately, living standards. Many countries, including here in Asia, will have to navigate reforms while also coping with the challenge of aging populations.

第四，阴云仍笼罩着全球经济的中期增长前景。许多发达经济体的工资增长依然疲弱，生产率增长滞后。这表明发达经济体和新兴市场国家在实施推动潜在增长、并最终提高人们生活水平的结构性改革方面进展有限。许多国家，包括亚洲国家须在推进改革的同时应对人口老龄化挑战。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

And lastly, let me point out that there is a significant portion of the global economy that is not participating in the recovery. Some oil and commodity exporters continue to feel the effects of low prices—even as they rebound.  Looking forward, our medium-term projections foresee that more than 40 countries, including some major emerging market countries, will grow more slowly than advanced countries.

最后，我想指出的是，仍有相当一部分国家和地区尚未参与全球经济复苏。一些石油和大宗商品出口国继续受到油价低迷（即使有所反弹）的影响。展望未来，根据我们的中期预测， 40多个国家（包括一些主要新兴市场国家）的增长速度将慢于发达国家。

Thus, they will not resume the trend of catching up in living standards. In fact, many will fall further behind.

因此，这些国家将难以走上恢复追赶发达国家生活水平的道路。事实上，许多国家会被落得更远。

Worse yet, some developing countries seem likely—once again—to face difficulties from the burden of rising indebtedness.

更糟糕的是，一些发展中国家可能会再次陷入债台高筑的境地 。

China’s Global Role

This evaluation of global growth and risks leads us inevitably to China. I will join the panel on China, so allow me to offer just a few general observations.

评估全球增长和风险不可避免地让我们想到中国。我将参加关于中国的专题讨论，请允许我提供一些基本想法。

The Chinese success story is deeply entwined with the fortunes of the global economy. As a trading nation, China is a key partner for over 100 countries: countries that represent 80 percent of global GDP. It is the hub of global supply chains, a magnet for commodity exporters, and a source of final demand.

中国的成功与全球经济的福祉密不可分。作为一个贸易国，中国是100多个国家（占全球GDP的80%）的重要合作伙伴。它是全球供应链的中心，是一个具有吸引力的大宗商品进口国，也是最终需求的来源。

It is a pacesetter for digital commerce, outweighing other countries in terms of online retailing and payments—and playing a leading role in the development of fintech, robotics and artificial intelligence.

中国在电子商务领域处于领导者地位，在网上零售和支付方面领先于其他国家，并在金融科技、机器人和人工智能开发方面起着主导作用。

Then there is investor and creditor China—playing an increasingly important role in development aid and infrastructure finance, as epitomized by the Belt and Road Initiative. One number: Chinese lending represents 25 to 30 percent of GDP in some recipient countries.

另一方面，中国又是投资人和债权人，如“一带一路”倡议所体现的，中国在发展援助和基础设施融资方面起着越来越重要的作用。用一个数字举例说明：中国贷款占一些受援国GDP的25%至30%。

Finally, multilateral China. It is the largest shareholder in AIIB, and the third-largest in the IMF. The renminbi has joined the SDR basket of currencies. It is safe to predict that Beijing’s role in international institutions will continue to expand in the coming years.

最后，中国是多边机制的参与者。它是亚投行的第一大股东，也是基金组织的第三大股东。人民币已经被纳入特别提款权（SDR）货币篮子。可以有把握地预见，在未来几年，北京在国际机构中的作用将继续提高。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

China’s Key Challenge

The key challenge now for China is to ensure that its role generating growth and financing remains on a path that benefits the global economy—and itself. We can ill afford a world preoccupied with uncertainty about China’s future.

中国目前面临的主要挑战是确保继续发挥其促进增长和融资的作用，从而造福全球经济，并使其自身受益。我们不能负担一个被中国未来不确定性笼罩的世界。

At home, China has a window of opportunity to accelerate economic reforms that can secure sustainable and inclusive growth. We see two core policy objectives:

就其国内而言，中国有机会加速推行可以确保实现可持续和包容性增长的经济改革。我们看到两个核心政策目标：

·         First, to push further the policies that have been rebalancing growth toward consumption, with a stronger role for private businesses. This calls for less public—and more private—investment; a progressive tax system; continued rationalization of state enterprises; and more spending on health, education, and the poor.

首先，进一步推行以消费促进增长的再平衡政策，让私营企业发挥更大的作用。 这就需要减少公共投资，同时增加私人投资；推行累进税制；继续理顺国有企业；并增加在健康、教育和减贫方面的支出。

·         Second, to safeguard financial stability. This means a continued effort to rein in credit growth, and to tighten oversight of some lending practices. China has made considerable progress in this area, as our recent assessment of its financial sector shows. But it is essential to sustain this effort to ensure that financial instability does not undermine the country’s extraordinary economic and social progress.

第二，维护金融稳定。这意味着需继续努力控制信贷增长，同时加强对一些贷款做法的监管。正如我们最近对金融部门的评估所示，中国在这方面已经取得了相当大的进展。但是，必须持续努力，以确保金融不稳定不至损坏中国取得的非凡经济和社会进步。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

In terms of its global role, China has been a voice of reason in the debate over trade and economic integration. This support for globalization—proclaimed a year ago, by President Xi Jinping at Davos—is constructive and valuable, especially at a time when many in advanced economies are expressing doubts.

就其全球作用而言，中国一直是推动贸易和经济一体化辩论的理由之一。中国对全球化的支持（习近平主席一年前在达沃斯宣布）是有建设性意义和可贵的，在许多发达经济体对此表示怀疑的时候，更是如此。

At the same time, we believe that effective and credible leadership in support of globalization also requires a willingness to recognize and address one’s own shortcomings. That means China should be open to look at its own restrictions on trade and investment, which have generated criticism from some trading partners. It also means protecting intellectual property rights and reducing the distortions of industrial policy, overcapacity, and policies that favor state enterprises.

同时，我们认为，要在支持全球化方面起到有效和可信的领导作用，还需要承认和解决自身存在的不足。这意味着中国应该虚心审视其自身对贸易和投资采取的限制，这些限制措施引起一些贸易伙伴的批评。这还意味着需保护知识产权，减少产业政策扭曲、产能过剩以及偏袒国有企业的政策。

Globalization will not receive sustained global support unless it is based on free and fair trade and investment practices, with an updating of rules and institutions, as the sophistication and complexities of the global economy evolve and as technology changes the economic landscape.

除非是建立在自由和公平的贸易和投资实践的基础之上，不然，全球化将不会得到来自全世界的持续支持，而且随着全球经济复杂性演变以及技术改变经济格局，需不断更新有关规则和制度。

Better Globalization

Better globalization is in China’s own interest. The protectionist sentiments that have arisen in the West are a response to the perceived shortcomings of trade and economic integration and the unaddressed gap between winners and losers. So far, this has not become an issue in Asia where there have been few losers; rather rapid growth has resulted in big winners and smaller winners.

更好的全球化符合中国自身的利益。西方出现的贸易保护主义情绪反映的是贸易和经济一体化存在的不足以及“赢家”和“输家”之间未解决的差距。迄今为止，这在亚洲不是一个问题，因为亚洲的“输家”不多；相反，快速增长造就了大的“赢家”和小的“赢家”。

But as development and new technology change patterns of competitiveness, there is no guarantee that this will continue unabated.  China needs to be alert to the discontent with globalization as it is currently configured and support a global economic order for the future that will be widely embraced.

但是，随着发展和新技术改变竞争格局，不能确保这会继续下去。中国需警惕对目前全球化格局的不满情绪，并支持一个会被广泛接受的未来全球经济秩序。

Finally, a few words on China as a creditor and investor. China has taken on an important role in the developing world by providing the funding to develop infrastructure. This could benefit dozens of countries. But there are concerns about the debt that countries are taking on to finance this undertaking.

最后，再讲讲作为债权人和投资人的中国。通过为发展基础设施提供资金，中国在发展中国家起着十分重要的作用。这会让几十个国家受益。但是，各方面对这些国家使用所得债务进行的融资活动存在顾虑。

Some developing countries may face unsustainable debt burdens if recent lending trends continue. The Chinese government and its lenders have begun considering the benefits of strengthened frameworks for debt resolution that could be used if needed.  We believe it is urgent to establish such frameworks and work cooperatively to ensure that the developing world does not face a new debt crisis.

如果近来的贷款趋势继续下去，一些发展中国家可能会面临不可持续的债务负担。中国政府及其贷款人已经开始考虑必要时可采用的强化债务处置框架的好处。我们认为，当务之急是建立这样的框架，并通过合作，确保发展中国家不会陷入新的债务危机。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

Impact of Chinese Investments

And while China’s foreign direct investments have been growing in size and importance, bringing positive benefits to many developing countries, it will be important for China not only to ensure that those investments are commercially viable. It also needs to take account of their impact on governance, capacity building, sustainable development and environmental protection.

中国外商直接投资的规模和重要性不断上升，这为许多发展中国家带来积极的好处。但是，中国不仅应确保投资具有商业可行性，还需考虑其投资对这些国家的治理、能力建设、可持续发展和环境保护带来的影响。

China’s constructive role in global institutions like the IMF is critical to our ability to adapt to a changing global economy. We greatly value China's leadership and we look forward to continuing our excellent collaboration.

中国在基金组织等全球性机构中起着建设性作用，这对于我们提高适应不断变化的全球经济的能力至关重要。我们非常珍视中国的领导地位，并且期待继续保持与中国的良好合作关系。微博@高斋翻硕 公众号:高斋翻译学堂

Today I have tried to spell out the key global economy challenges to be addressed in the coming years. Asia has been an impressive engine of growth and a source of prosperity over the past decade. Going forward, the challenge is to ensure these achievements are sustainable and inclusive.

今天，我试着阐述未来几年须解决的主要全球经济挑战。过去十年里，亚洲成为令人瞩目的经济增长引擎和繁荣的源泉。未来面临的挑战是确保这些成就是可持续的并具有包容性。

Thank you.

感谢大家！