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双语：国新办举行前三季度国民经济运行情况发布会（中英对照）

国务院新闻办新闻局 寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli, Press Bureau of the SCIO:

女士们、先生们，大家上午好！欢迎出席国务院新闻办新闻发布会。今天我们进行经济数据例行发布，非常高兴邀请到国家统计局国民经济综合统计司司长、新闻发言人毛盛勇先生，请他向大家介绍2019年前三季度国民经济运行情况，并回答大家的提问。

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this SCIO press conference where we are releasing China's economic data. We are pleased to welcome Mr. Mao Shengyong, spokesperson of the NBS and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics at the NBS, to introduce details of the economic performance in the first three quarters of 2019 and answer some of your questions.

下面先请毛盛勇先生作介绍。

Now, I'll give the floor to Mr. Mao.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢主持人。女士们、先生们、各位记者朋友，大家上午好。我先给大家报告一下前三季度经济运行的基本情况，然后回答大家提问。

Thank you. Ladies, gentlemen, and media friends, good morning. I'll first give you a brief introduction of China's economic performance in the first three quarters of 2019, and then answer some of your questions.

前三季度国民经济运行总体平稳，结构调整稳步推进。

The national economy maintained overall stability and made steady progress in restructuring in the first three quarters of 2019.

前三季度，面对国内外风险挑战明显增多的复杂局面，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持新发展理念，持续深化供给侧结构性改革，加大逆周期调节力度，着力做好稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期工作，狠抓各项政策落实落地，国民经济运行总体平稳，经济结构持续优化，民生福祉不断改善。

Faced with mounting risks and challenges both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, insisted on following the new development philosophy, continued to deepen supply-side structural reform, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment, endeavored to maintain stability in such areas as employment, the financial sector, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and market expectations, and spared no effort to implement various policies in an effective way. As a result, the national economy maintained overall stability, with an optimized economic structure and improving living standards.

初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值697798亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长6.2%。分季度看，一季度增长6.4%，二季度增长6.2%，三季度增长6.0%。分产业看，第一产业增加值43005亿元，增长2.9%；第二产业增加值277869亿元，增长5.6%；第三产业增加值376925亿元，增长7.0%。

According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 69.78 trillion yuan (about US$9.87 trillion) in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.2% at comparable prices year on year. Specifically, the growth rate was 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second and 6% in the third. The added value achieved by the primary industry was 4.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%; the secondary industry 27.79 trillion yuan, up 5.6%; and the tertiary industry 37.69 trillion yuan, up 7%.

一、农业生产形势较好，秋粮丰收在望

1. Agricultural production enjoyed sound growth with autumn grain expecting a good harvest.

全国夏粮早稻合计16801万吨，同比增加60.6万吨；秋粮生产总体较好，有望再获丰收，全年粮食总产量有望继续保持在6.5亿吨以上，实现增产。前三季度，种植业增加值同比增长4.3%。种植结构进一步优化，优质稻谷播种面积扩大，玉米面积调减，大豆面积增加。前三季度，禽蛋产量同比增长5.5%，牛奶产量增长2.5%；猪牛羊禽肉产量5508万吨，同比下降8.3%；其中禽肉、牛肉和羊肉产量分别为1539万吨、458万吨和330万吨，分别增长10.2%、3.2%和2.3%，猪肉产量3181万吨，下降17.2%。

The total output of summer grain and early rice totaled 168.01 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 606,000 metric tons. The autumn grain has been growing well and another good harvest is expected. Total grain output in 2019 is expected to be above 650 million metric tons and achieve an increase in production. In the first three quarters, the added value of crop farming grew 4.3% year on year. The planting structure was further optimized. The sown area of quality rice and soybean was increased, while that of corn was reduced. In the first three quarters, the output of eggs grew 5.5% year on year and that of milk 2.5%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 55.08 million metric tons, down 8.3% year on year. Specifically, the output of poultry, beef and mutton was 15.39 million metric tons, 4.58 million metric tons, and 3.3 million metric tons respectively, representing gains of 10.2%, 3.2% and 2.3%. Pork output was 31.81 million metric tons, down 17.2%.

二、工业生产持续发展，高技术制造业占比提高

2. Industrial production sustained growth with the proportion of high-tech manufacturing increasing.

前三季度，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.6%。分经济类型看，国有控股企业增加值同比增长4.7%，股份制企业增长6.9%，外商及港澳台商投资企业增长1.4%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长4.6%，制造业增长5.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长7.0%。工业战略性新兴产业增加值同比增长8.4%，增速快于规模以上工业2.8个百分点。高技术制造业增加值同比增长8.7%，增速快于规模以上工业3.1个百分点；占全部规模以上工业比重为14.1%，比上半年提高0.3个百分点。太阳能电池和新能源汽车产量同比分别增长25.1%和21.4%。9月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，增速比8月份加快1.4个百分点，环比增长0.72%。

The total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% year on year in the first three quarters. An analysis by types of ownership showed that State-holding enterprises achieved growth of 4.7% year on year; that of shareholding enterprises was up 6.9%; and that of enterprises funded by foreign investors and investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan grew 1.4%. In terms of sectors, mining grew 4.6% year on year, manufacturing increased 5.9% and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased 7%. The added value of strategic emerging industries grew 8.4% year on year, 2.8 percentage points higher than industrial enterprises above designated size. That of high-tech manufacturing grew 8.7% year on year, 3.1 percentage points higher than industrial enterprises above designated size, accounting for 14.1% of that achieved by industrial enterprises above designated size, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than the first half of 2019. The output of solar cells and new energy automobiles grew 25.1% and 21.4% respectively year on year. In September, the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 5.8% year on year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of August, or up 0.72% month on month.

1-8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额40164亿元，同比下降1.7%，降幅与1-7月持平；规模以上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.87%，与1-7月份持平。

In the first eight months, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 4.02 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year on year, the same figure as that of the first seven months. The profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.87%, the same as that achieved in the first seven months.

三、服务业较快增长，现代服务业增势良好

3. The service sector continued to show fast growth with modern services maintaining good momentum of development.

前三季度，服务业继续保持较好发展势头。信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业，金融业增加值同比分别增长19.8%、8.0%、7.4%和7.1%，增速分别快于第三产业12.8、1.0、0.4和0.1个百分点。全国服务业生产指数同比增长7.0%，其中9月份增长6.7%，增速比8月份加快0.3个百分点。9月份，服务业商务活动指数为53.0%，比8月份上升0.5个百分点；服务业业务活动预期指数为59.3%，处于较高水平。

In the first three quarters, the service sector continued to maintain good growth momentum. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transport, storage and postal services, and financial intermediary services grew 19.8%, 8%, 7.4% and 7.1% respectively year on year. These figures were 12.8 percentage points, 1 percentage point, 0.4 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point higher than the level achieved by the tertiary sector as a whole. The Index of Services Production increased 7% year on year. Specifically, the Index of Services Production in September grew 6.7%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than that of August. In September, the business activity index for services stood at 53%, 0.5 percentage point higher than August. The business expectation index for services was 59.3%, thus remaining at a high level.

1-8月份，规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比增长9.5%，增速比1-7月份放缓0.1个百分点。其中，战略性新兴服务业、高技术服务业和科技服务业营业收入分别增长12.1%、11.9%和11.6%，增速分别快于全部规模以上服务业2.6、2.4和2.1个百分点，保持较快增长。

In the first eight months, the business revenue of service enterprises above designated size increased 9.5% year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the first seven months. Specifically, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, high-tech and technology services grew 12.1%, 11.9% and 11.6% respectively year on year, 2.6 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points, and 2.1 percentage points higher than service enterprises above designated size, thus maintaining a pattern of fast growth.

四、市场销售稳定增长，升级类商品销售增长较快

4. Market sales witnessed steady growth with fast sales of upgraded consumer goods.

前三季度，社会消费品零售总额296674亿元，同比增长8.2%，扣除汽车后的社会消费品零售总额增长9.1%。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零售额253524亿元，同比增长8.0%；

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year gain of 8.2%. Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles grew 9.1%. Retail sales in urban areas reached 25.35 trillion yuan, up 8% year on year; sales in rural areas stood at 4.32 trillion yuan, up 9%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering industry was 3.26 trillion yuan, up 9.4%; the retail sales of goods totaled 26.41 trillion yuan, up 8%.

乡村消费品零售额43150亿元，增长9.0%。按消费类型分，餐饮收入32565亿元，增长9.4%；商品零售264109亿元，增长8.0%。消费升级类商品销售增长较快。前三季度，限额以上单位智能家用电器和音像器材、可穿戴智能设备零售额同比分别增长41.6%、11.1%。前三季度，全国居民人均消费支出15464元，同比增长8.3%。其中，人均服务性消费支出增长10.2%，增速快于居民人均消费支出1.9个百分点。9月份，社会消费品零售总额34495亿元，同比增长7.8%，增速比8月份加快0.3个百分点。

The sale of upgraded consumer goods witnessed fast growth. In the first three quarters, retail sales of smart household appliances and audio-video equipment, as well as wearable smart devices, by enterprises above designated size grew 41.6% and 11.1% respectively year on year. In the first three quarters, national per capita consumption expenditure of households was calculated at 15,464 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. Specifically, the per capita consumption expenditure on services grew 10.2%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the overall figure for per capita consumption expenditure. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 7.8%, 0.3 percentage point higher than August.

前三季度，全国网上零售额73237亿元，同比增长16.8%。其中，实物商品网上零售额57777亿元，增长20.5%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为19.5%。

In the first three quarters, online retail sales reached 7.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8%. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 5.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.5%, accounting for 19.5% of total consumer goods sales.

五、投资保持平稳增长，高技术产业投资增长较快

5. Investment maintained stable growth and investment in high-tech industries grew fast.

前三季度，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）461204亿元，同比增长5.4%。其中，民间投资264805亿元，增长4.7%。分产业看，第一产业投资下降2.1%；第二产业投资增长2.0%，其中制造业投资增长2.5%；第三产业投资增长7.2%，其中基础设施投资增长4.5%。高技术制造业投资同比增长12.6%，增速比全部投资快7.2个百分点；高技术服务业投资增长13.8%，增速比全部投资快8.4个百分点。

In the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 46.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. Specifically, private investment reached 26.48 trillion yuan, up 4.7%. Investment in the primary industry dropped 2.1%; the secondary industry up 2%, of which, manufacturing increased 2.5%; the tertiary industry up 7.2%, of which, infrastructure grew 4.5%. Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6% year on year, 7.2 percentage points higher than that achieved in total investment; investment in high-tech services grew 13.8%, 8.4 percentage points higher than that of total investment.

前三季度，全国房地产开发投资98008亿元，同比增长10.5%。全国商品房销售面积119179万平方米，同比下降0.1%；全国商品房销售额111491亿元，增长7.1%。

In the first three quarters, total investment in real estate development was 9.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1.19 billion square meters, down 0.1% year on year. The total sales of commercial buildings stood at 11.15 trillion yuan, up 7.1%.　

六、进出口规模扩大，贸易结构不断优化

6. Imports and exports scaled up and the trade structure continued to optimize.

前三季度，货物进出口总额229145亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，出口124803亿元，增长5.2%；进口104342亿元，下降0.1%。进出口相抵，顺差20462亿元，同比扩大44.2%。贸易方式结构进一步优化，一般贸易进出口增长4.8%，占进出口总额的比重为59.5%，比上年同期提高1.1个百分点；机电产品出口增长4.7%，占出口总额的比重为58.1%。民营企业进出口增长10.4%，占进出口总额的比重为42.3%，比上年同期提高2.9个百分点。9月份，进出口总额27826亿元，同比下降3.3%。其中，出口15289亿元，下降0.7%；进口12537亿元，下降6.2%。前三季度，规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值90913亿元，同比增长2.4%。

The total value of imports and exports of goods in the first three quarters was 22.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Specifically, the total value of exports was 12.48 trillion yuan, up 5.2%; total value of imports was 10.43 trillion yuan, down 0.1%. The trade balance was 2.05 trillion yuan in surplus, a year-on-year growth of 44.2%.

The trade structure was further optimized. The imports and exports of general trade grew 4.8%, accounting for 59.5% of the total value, 1.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; the export of mechanical and electrical products grew 4.7%, accounting for 58.1% of the total export value. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew 10.4%, accounting for 42.3% of total value, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2.78 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year on year. Of this total, the value of exports was 1.53 trillion yuan, down 0.7%; and that of imports was 1.25 trillion yuan, down 6.2%. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 9.09 trillion yuan, up 2.4% year on year.

七、居民消费价格涨幅扩大，工业生产者价格同比持平

7. Growth of consumer price increased and the producer prices for industrial products maintained the same level year on year.

前三季度，全国居民消费价格同比上涨2.5%。其中，城市上涨2.4%，农村上涨2.6%。分类别看，食品烟酒价格同比上涨5.1%，衣着上涨1.8%，居住上涨1.7%，生活用品及服务上涨1.0%，交通和通信下降1.5%，教育文化和娱乐上涨2.4%，医疗保健上涨2.5%，其他用品和服务上涨3.0%。在食品烟酒价格中，粮食价格上涨0.5%，猪肉价格上涨21.3%，鲜菜价格上涨5.1%。扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比上涨1.7%，涨幅比上半年回落0.1个百分点。9月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨3.0%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；环比上涨0.9%。

In the first three quarters, the consumer price index rose 2.5% year on year. Specifically, there was a gain of 2.4% in urban areas and 2.6% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol rose 5.1% year on year; clothing 1.8%; housing 1.7%; articles and services for daily use 1%. Prices for transportation and communication services fell 1.5%; education, culture and recreation rose 2.4%; medical services and health care up 2.5%; other articles and services grew 3%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, grain prices went up 0.5%, pork up 21.3%, and fresh vegetables up 5.1%. The core CPI excluding the price of food and energy rose 1.7% year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the first half of 2019. In September, the consumer price index was 3% higher year on year, 0.2 percentage point higher than August, or up 0.9% month on month.

前三季度，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比持平。9月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降1.2%，环比上涨0.1%。前三季度，全国工业生产者购进价格同比下降0.3%。9月份，全国工业生产者购进价格同比下降1.7%，环比上涨0.2%。

The producer prices for industrial products in the first three quarters remained at the same level year on year. The producer prices for industrial products in September were down 1.2% year on year, or up 0.1% month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchase prices for industrial products dropped 0.3% year on year. In September, the figure was down 1.7% year on year, but up 0.2% month on month.

八、就业形势总体稳定，农村外出务工劳动力增加

8. Employment was generally stable and rural migrant workers increased.　

前三季度，全国城镇新增就业1097万人，完成全年目标任务的99.7%。9月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%，与上月持平。其中，25-59岁人口调查失业率为4.6%，低于全国城镇调查失业率0.6个百分点。31个大城市城镇调查失业率为5.2%，与上月持平。9月份，全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间为46.7小时。三季度末，农村外出务工劳动力总量18336万人，比上年同期增加201万人，增长1.1%。

In the first three quarters, newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 10.97 million, accounting for 99.7% of the year's target. In September, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2%, the same as the previous month. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.6%, 0.6 percentage point lower than the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, the same as the previous month. In September, employees of enterprises worked an average of 46.7 hours per week. At the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 183.36 million, 2.01 million more than the same period last year, and up 1.1%.

九、居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步，农村居民收入增长快于城镇居民

9. Resident income rose basically in step with economic growth and the income growth of rural residents outpaced that of urban residents.　

前三季度，全国居民人均可支配收入22882元，同比名义增长8.8%，扣除价格因素实际增长6.1%，与经济增长基本同步。按常住地分，城镇居民人均可支配收入31939元，实际增长5.4%；农村居民人均可支配收入11622元，实际增长6.4%。城乡居民人均可支配收入比值为2.75，比上年同期缩小0.03。全国居民人均可支配收入中位数19882元，同比名义增长9.0%。

In the first three quarters, the nationwide per capita disposable income was 22,882 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8% year on year, or a real growth of 6.1% after deducting price factors, basically in step with economic growth. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 31,939 yuan, a real growth of 5.4%. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 11,622 yuan, up 6.4% in real terms. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.75 times that of rural households, 0.03 less than the same period last year. The median level of nationwide per capita disposable income was 19,882 yuan, a nominal increase of 9% year on year.　

十、重点改革任务扎实推进，经济结构调整优化

10. Key reforms achieved solid progress and the economic structure was adjusted and optimized.

供给侧结构性改革不断深化。三季度，全国工业产能利用率为76.4%，与二季度持平，其中计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业，化学原料和化学制品制造业产能利用率均比二季度提高1.1个百分点。9月末，全国商品房待售面积49346万平方米，比上月末减少438万平方米，比上年同期下降7.2%。8月末，规模以上工业企业资产负债率为56.8%，同比下降0.5个百分点。前三季度，生态保护和环境治理业、教育等短板领域投资同比分别增长40.0%和18.5%，分别比全部投资快34.6和13.1个百分点。

Supply-side structural reform continued to deepen. In the third quarter, the industrial capacity utilization rate nationwide reached 76.4%, the same as that of the second quarter. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates of both the manufacture of computers, communications and other electronic equipment and the manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products were 1.1 percentage points higher than the second quarter. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 493.46 million square meters, 4.38 million square meters less than a month earlier, and down 7.2% compared with the same period last year. The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size at the end of August stood at 56.8%, 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year. In the first three quarters, investment in weak areas like ecological protection and treatment of environment pollution and education grew 40% and 18.5% respectively year on year, which was 34.6 percentage points and 13.1 percentage points higher than that of overall investment.

三大攻坚战扎实推进。8月末，全国地方政府债务余额214139亿元，控制在全国人大批准的限额之内。精准脱贫加力显效，贫困地区农村居民人均可支配收入保持较快增长。污染防治持续推进。初步核算，前三季度，天然气、水电、核电、风电等清洁能源消费量占能源消费总量的比重比上年同期提高1.2个百分点，单位国内生产总值能耗同比下降2.7%。

Solid efforts were made to advance the "three critical battles" of preventing and defusing financial risks, conducting targeted poverty eradication and controlling pollution. At the end of August, the balance of local government debt stood at 21.41 trillion yuan, which was within the limit approved by the National People's Congress. Efforts on targeted poverty eradication were enhanced and more effects were delivered, with the per capita disposable income for rural households in impoverished areas maintaining fast growth. The work of pollution prevention and control was continuously advanced. According to preliminary estimates, in the first three quarters, the share of consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption was 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The energy consumption per unit GDP went down 2.7% year on year.

经济结构调整优化。前三季度，第三产业增加值占国内生产总值比重为54.0%，比上年同期提高0.6个百分点，比第二产业高14.2个百分点；第三产业增长对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为60.6%，高于第二产业24.3个百分点；规模以上工业中战略性新兴产业和高技术产业保持快速增长。最终消费支出增长对经济增长的贡献率为60.5%。在全部居民最终消费支出中，服务消费占比为50.6%，比上年同期提高0.7个百分点。重大区域战略稳步推进，区域协调联动发展的新格局正在形成。

The economic structure was adjusted and optimized. In the first three quarters, the added value achieved by the tertiary sector accounted for 54% of GDP — 0.6 percentage point higher than last year, and 14.2 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry — contributing 60.6% to GDP growth, 24.3 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. Of industrial enterprises above designated size, strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries maintained fast growth. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 60.5%. Service consumption took up 50.6% of households' final consumption expenditure, 0.7 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Steady progress was recorded in implementing major regional development strategies and a new pattern of coordinated and integrated regional development is taking shape.

总的来看，前三季度国民经济运行总体平稳。但也要看到，当前国内外经济形势依然复杂严峻，全球经济增长放缓，外部不稳定不确定因素增多，国内经济下行压力较大。下一步，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，增强紧迫感和责任感，集中精力办好自己的事，抓好发展这个第一要务，把稳增长、保持经济运行在合理区间放在更加突出的位置，进一步向改革开放创新要动力，从拓宽国内市场需求挖潜力，以改善民生为导向培育新的有效投资和消费需求，增强经济发展韧性，顶住经济下行压力，统筹做好稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险、保稳定各项工作，促进经济持续健康发展。谢谢。

Generally speaking, the national economy maintained overall stability in the first three quarters. However, we must be aware that given the complicated and severe economic conditions both at home and abroad, slowing global economic growth, and increasing external instability and uncertainties, the economy is under mounting downward pressure. In the next stage, under the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we should heighten the sense of urgency and responsibility, focus on running our own affairs well, take development as the top priority, and place stable growth and reasonable range of economic development in a more prominent position. We should seek impetus from reform and opening up as well as innovation, tap the potential by expanding domestic market demands, foster new effective investment and consumer demands to improve living standards, boost the resilience of development, withstand downward pressures, and take coordinated steps to achieve steady growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risks and maintain stability, so as to facilitate sustained and sound economic development. Thank you.

寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli:

谢谢毛司长。下面进入提问环节，提问前请通报所在的新闻机构。　

Thank you, Mr. Mao. Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify the news outlet you represent before asking questions.

中央广播电视总台央视记者:

CCTV:

请问毛司长，从您刚才发布的数据中我们注意到，三季度经济增速是进一步放缓的，请问这是否表明经济下行压力进一步加大？您怎么看待目前的经济形势？　

We notice that the economic growth rate further slowed down during the first three quarters of this year. Does that mean the economy is under greater downward pressure? How do you analyze the current economic conditions?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢你的提问。今年以来，世界经济和国际贸易增长都在放缓，国内经济的下行压力较大。中央及时出台了一系列逆周期调节的政策，较好顶住了经济下行压力。从前三季度主要经济指标来看，经济运行总体平稳。你关心的问题，怎么看经济下行压力和经济增速的放缓，可以从以下几个角度来看。

Thank you for your question. Since the beginning of this year, the world economy and international trade have both seen slower growth and, so, the Chinese economy has been under mounting downward pressure. The CPC Central Committee issued a series of policies for counter-cyclical adjustment in a timely manner to enable the economy to better withstand such pressure. The key economic indicators in the first three quarters show the economy has maintained overall stability. I will analyze the current economic condition from the following perspectives:

第一，从增速本身来看，尽管有所放缓，但是这个速度在全球主要经济体里是名列前茅的。前三季度经济增长速度是6.2%，比上半年小幅放缓0.1个百分点。初步预计，在全球经济总量一万亿美元以上的经济体中，这个速度是最快的。我们现在这个速度和自己过去比是中高速，但是放在全球看，实际上仍是一个高增长。

First, although there was slower growth in the domestic economy, the growth rate is still leading the world. The GDP grew 6.2% in the first three quarters, only 0.1 percentage points slower than the first half of the year. It is estimated the growth rate should be the fastest among all economies with a size of more than $1 trillion. The growth may be slower compared to our growth in previous years, however, it is still a high rate globally.

第二，从多个角度来看，尽管经济面临下行压力，但主要的宏观经济指标仍然保持在合理区间。从就业看，9月全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%，和上个月持平；从城镇新增就业来看，前9个月基本实现全年目标任务，就业形势总体平稳。从价格看，居民消费价格9月当月尽管涨幅有所扩大，达到3.0%，但扣除食品和能源之后的核心CPI涨幅是1.5%，还是有小幅回落的。从前9个月累计来看，CPI的平均涨幅是2.5%，应该说还是一个温和上涨的水平。从收入看，前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入实际增长6.1%，和经济增长速度基本同步，还要快于人均GDP增长速度。从名义增长看，前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入增长8.8%，还是比较好的一个增长。从生态环境看，前三季度能耗强度继续下降，清洁能源的生产和使用比例继续提高。

Second, key macroeconomic indicators remain in a proper range in spite of downward pressures. In September, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2%, the same as the previous month.In the first three quarters, employment was generally stable and the number of newly-employed people in urban areas almost met the whole-year target. The growth of consumer price increased in September to 3.0%. However, the core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 1.5%, which was slightly lower than that of previous months. In the first three quarters, the consumer price registered a modest increase of 2.5% year-on-year.During the same period, nationwide per capita disposable income registered real growth of 6.1% after deducting price factors, almost equal to the economic growth and faster than the growth of per capita GDP. Even the 8.8% nominal growth in per capita disposable income was relatively good. The energy consumption continued to fall during the first three quarters, while the production and utilization proportion of clean energy sources continue to rise.

第三，从下阶段来看，尽管外部存在不确定性，但是国内确定性的支撑因素还是比较多。

Third, although there are external uncertainties, there are more certainties domestically which will play their due role in driving the economy.　

一是服务业的支撑能力在不断地增强。前三季度，服务业增加值增长速度为7%，这是一个比较好的增长速度。现在从服务消费的一些指标看，比如消费市场、居民消费中的服务消费支出看，服务消费的增长速度超过10%，服务消费保持比较快的增长，将拉动服务业有比较好的增长势头，服务业“稳定器”的作用会不断巩固。

For example, the service sector is playing a bigger role in driving economic growth. In the first three quarters, its value-added growth was 7% and consumption of services registered a relatively high growth of over 10%, which will drive the overall advance of the service sector and increasingly consolidate its stabilizing role.　

二是消费潜力不断释放。前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率保持在60%以上，特别是随着居民收入保持比较快的增长，消费环境不断改善，社会保障水平不断提高，供给能力不断增强，消费的基础性作用会不断加强。

Meanwhile, the potential for consumption is being unleashed. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was more than 60% in the first three quarters. The fundamental role of consumption in driving the economy will be strengthened with personal income increasing, the consumption environment continuing to improve, social security being enhanced and the supply capacity being strengthened.

三是转型升级的态势持续发展。从制造业来看，9月规模以上工业中高技术产业增加值同比增长11%，比上月加快4.9个百分点；9月战略性新兴产业的增长速度也超过9%。从投资来看，短板领域投资、高技术领域投资持续保持比较快的增长，1-9月高技术产业投资、社会领域投资增长速度都在13%以上。

In addition, China's economic structure continues to upgrade. In September, in industrial enterprises above designated size, the added value of high-tech industries grew by 11% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points higher than the previous month; the added value of strategic emerging industries grew by over 9%. Investments in areas of weakness and high-tech industries maintained rapid growth. From January to September, investments in high-tech industries and in the social domain both maintained growth above 13%.

四是政策效果持续显现。今年以来，国家出台了一系列大力度减税降费的政策，效果在不断显现。同时还增加了地方专项债的规模和加快了发行进度，效果也不断显现。最近几个月固定资产投资中，基础设施投资在逐步回升。金融领域不断增加对实体经济的支持、促进实际利率下行等方面也是有成效的，有些效果在显现，有的效果后面会继续显现。

Lastly, policies continue to have their desired effect. A batch of policies on cutting taxes and fees have been issued this year. The issuance of special bonds by local governments have been increased and the issuance process quickened. All those policies continue to take effect. The investment in infrastructure has rebounded in recent months. The financial sector is increasing its support for the real economy and facilitating a lowering of real interest rates. Some of the policies have delivered desired results and others will continue to take effect in the future.

总的来看，尽管外部环境比较严峻复杂，但国内有力的支撑因素比较多。下一步经济保持平稳运行还是有条件、有支撑的。谢谢。

Generally speaking, in spite of stern external environment, favorable domestic factors will ensure a stable economic performance in the near future. Thank you.

香港南华早报记者:

South China Morning Post:

我们看到最新数据显示三季度GDP同比增速放缓到6%。请问，四季度这个增速是否会继续放缓或者跌到6%以下？统计局对此有何分析？谢谢。　

The latest data shows GDP growth in the third quarter slowed down to 6% from a year earlier. Will it continue to slow down, falling below 6% in the fourth quarter? How would you analyze it? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢你的提问。三季度当季增速比二季度有所回落，大家很关心下一步四季度的情况。刚才我讲到，下一阶段世界经济大概率还会延续放缓的趋势，我们看一些先行指标和国际机构的预测都不太乐观。但从我们内部来看，有利支撑因素比较多。具体到四季度，从最近一些指标可以看到新的变化和迹象。比如，9月制造业PMI有所加快，体现在新订单指数、生产指数在加快；基础设施投资最近两个月都在回升；9月工业生产者出厂价格PPI同比尽管在下降，但是9月和8月环比都是在上涨；对生产销售影响比较大的汽车生产和销售，近两月降幅呈现收窄态势。这些都是比较好的信号，再加上去年四季度基数相对较低，我觉得今年四季度经济保持平稳趋势是有保证的。谢谢。

Thanks for your question. As the GDP growth in the third quarter was lower than that in the second, people will naturally be paying close attention to the figure in the next quarter. It is highly possible that the global economy will continue slowing down in the next stage as I said just now, as some leading indicators and forecasts from international agencies are not that optimistic. Despite this, if we look beneath the surface, there are lots of favorable factors supporting China's economy in the fourth quarter, with some recent indicators showing such encouraging signs and new changes. For example, growth of the manufacturing PMI accelerated in September, as reflected in the new orders index and the production index. Investment in infrastructure has picked up in the last two months. The PPI figures rose both in August and September compared with the previous month, despite declining year-on-year. The production and sales of automobiles, which has a large impact on the total production and sales, showed a narrowing decline in the recent two months. Those are all good signals, and, given the relatively low base in the last fourth quarter, I think the economy will remain stable. Thank you.

彭博新闻社记者:

Bloomberg:

我有三个问题。第一个问题，刚才我们看到数据中显示，消费对GDP增长贡献率达到60.5%，我想问一下投资和进出口对GDP增长贡献率是多少？第二个问题，刚才提到人均可支配收入与经济增长基本是同步的，但没有超过经济增速，这样的情况下，是不是更难实现以投资推动增长向以消费推动增长转变？第三个问题，关于基础设施投资。刚才也谈到，现在地方政府的专项债用的已经差不多了，是不是四季度基础设施投资会有所放缓？

I have three questions. First, the data just now released shows that consumer spending contributed 60.5% to the GDP growth. How much did investment and imports and exports contribute? Second, as just mentioned, the growth of per capita disposable income is basically in line with the overall economic growth, but not faster than it. Then, will it be more difficult to shift from investment-driven growth to being driven by consumer spending? The third question is about investment in infrastructure. As mentioned, the local governments' special bonds have almost been used up. Will the investment in infrastructure slow down in the fourth quarter?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢你的三个提问。第一个问题，关于三大需求的贡献率。今年前三季度，最终消费支出的贡献率为60.5%，资本形成的贡献率为19.8%，包含货物和服务的净出口贡献率19.6%。合起来是100%，但是由于四舍五入的原因，可能会有一点差异。

Thank you for the three questions. The first is about the contribution rate of the three major demands to the GDP growth. In the first three quarters of this year, final consumer spending contributed 60.5%, capital formation 19.8% and net exports of goods and services 19.6%. Those should add up to 100%, but the rounding-off leads to some nuance.

关于第二个问题，人均可支配收入今年前三季度实际增长6.1%和经济增长基本同步，经济增长速度6.2%。如果从人均GDP增长速度来看，人均可支配收入比人均GDP增速要快。从名义增长来看，前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入增长8.8%，这个收入增长还是不错的。至于能不能推动消费往投资方向转型，我们已经看到，最近这些年在经济调整发展方式上已经取得了比较大的进展，经济发展已经逐步的、更多的转向依靠内需，内需里又更多发挥了消费的基础性作用，这种转型已经在推进。另外，我们的转型正从要素规模的扩张，逐步转向全要素生产率提升、逐步转向依靠技术进步来提升。从这些事实上看，中国经济的转型升级态势还是比较明显的。

On your second question, per capita disposable income grew by 6.1% in real terms in the first three quarters, basically keeping pace with the 6.2% overall economic growth. If you look at per capita figures, disposable income grew faster than GDP growth. In terms of nominal growth, we saw a satisfactory rise of per capita disposable income by 8.8% in the first three quarters. As for whether we are able to shift from investment-driven growth to that driven by consumer spending, we have already made considerable progress in recent years in adjusting the pattern of economic development. Our economy has relied more on domestic demand gradually, in which consumer spending played an increasingly fundamental role. The process is on the go. In addition, there is also a shift of effort from expanding the scale of production factors to increasing total factor productivity with technological progress. Those facts show that China's economy is undergoing an obvious transformation and upgrading.

关于第三个问题，基础设施投资回升在四季度还有没有基础。扩大基础设施投资有几个方面。一方面，今年增加了地方专项债的规模，提前下拨了进度，现在在加快把明年的一些计划前移，做到今年的计划里面，正在筹备。同时，还要撬动社会资本投入。目前总体来看，基础设施投资还是有比较好的回升势头。谢谢。

Your third question is whether there is a basis for the investment in infrastructure to rebound in the fourth quarter. There are several ways of expanding infrastructure investment. On the one hand, we increased the size of local governments' special bond issuance this year, and allocated some funds ahead of schedule. We are preparing to allocate some of the next year's inputs within this year. At the same time, we should encourage private capital to become more engaged. Overall, there is a good trend for us to see a rebounding infrastructure investment. Thank you.

经济日报记者:

Economic Daily:

前三季度制造业投资同比增长2.5%，总的来说持续放缓，是不是说明现在实体经济运行还是比较困难？未来投资增长还有没有空间？

In the first three quarters, investment in manufacturing witnessed a 2.5% increase year-on-year, which shows the slowdown continued in general. Does that mean the real economy is facing some difficulties? Is there any room for future investment growth?

毛盛勇:

Mao shengyong:

谢谢你的提问，大家都很关心投资问题。关于投资，有这么几个特点：第一，投资增速总体平稳。1-9月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）增长速度为5.4%，比1-8月小幅放缓0.1个百分点，和去年同期持平。当然也要看到，随着投资规模的不断扩大，最近这几年投资增速总体是在放缓的，但当前总体还是比较平稳。第二，投资结构还在继续优化。1-9月份，第三产业投资增长速度为7.2%，属于较快增长。再看一些社会领域和高技术领域的投资增长也比较快，1-9月份，高技术产业投资、社会领域投资增长速度在13%或以上，这样有利于我们补短板，增强发展后劲。第三，最近制造业投资增长速度有所放缓，包括民间投资，这也说明现在实体经济还是面临不少困难，我们还要进一步加大力度落实好中央出台的政策，在支持实体经济、促进中小企业和民营企业发展方面，进一步优化营商环境、加强产权保护、加强融资支持等等，增强企业家信心。尽管在这些方面已取得一些成效，但还要继续加大力度。

Thanks for your question. It's a common concern. The development of investment in the first three quarters has the following characteristics. First, investment growth was generally stable. From January to September, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 5.4%, or 0.1 percentage point slower than the rate from January to August, but unchanged from the same period of last year. As the investment scale is continuously expanding, the growth rate has faced a slowdown in recent years, but still remains generally stable. Second, the investment structure continued to be optimized. From January to September, investment in the tertiary industry grew at a fast rate of 7.2%. Meanwhile, investment in high-tech industries and social sectors grew at a rate of 13% or above, which is beneficial for us to shore up areas of weakness and make development more sustainable. Third, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing, including private investment, has slowed, which shows the real economy is currently facing some difficulties. We will intensify efforts to implement the central government's policies, further improve the business environment, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights and advance financing support, so as to boost the real economy and development of private and medium- and small-sized enterprises.

至于你说投资有没有潜力和空间，我认为还有很大潜力。经济学里讲消费是最终需求，有最终需求就需要供给，要形成供给就要增加投资，投资在经济学中又叫“引致需求”，投资是一头连着需求、一头连着供给，不要简单把投资看作消费，它也是消费的重要变量，是供给的重要内容。比如说，我们增加基础设施和公共服务投资，就不仅仅是增加投资本身，还能扩大消费，提高人民的生活水平。企业扩大再生产投资，就可以增加供给能力和提升供给水平。企业增加设备更新和技术改造投资，就可以提高供给体系质量和层次，还能带动技术进步。从这个角度来看，扩大有效投资不仅仅可以扩大需求，还能够扩大供给水平，提高供给质量，优化供给结构，推动技术进步，促进转型升级。所以，不管是从需求端还是从供给角度看，中国投资的潜力和空间还是巨大的。

For your second question, I believe there is great potential for future investment growth. In economics, consumption equals final demand, which needs supply; supply calls for investment, which is also called "derived demand". Thus, investment is linked to demand on one side, and to supply on the other. We cannot simply see investment as consumption, because it is not only an important variable of consumption, but also an important part of supply. For example, when we increase investment in infrastructure and public services, it concerns not only investment increase, but expansion of consumption and improvement of people's living standards. When a company expands investment in reproduction, it can increase supply capacity and improve the supply level. If enterprises increase investment in equipment renewal and technology transformation, it can improve the quality and level of the supply system, and drive technological progress. From this perspective, to increase effective investment can not only expand demand, but also improve the level and quality of supply, optimize the supply structure, promote technological progress and boost transformation and upgrading. Therefore, whether it is from the demand or supply perspective, there is great potential and large room for expansion of domestic investment.

美国国际市场新闻社:

Market News International:

我有两个问题。第一个问题，我们注意到，9月工业增加值增速比8月加快1.4个百分点，这算不算是一个复苏的迹象？背后的原因是什么？第二个问题，您对猪肉价格和物价走势如何判断，是否会制约我们货币政策的宽松力度？第三个问题，中美贸易摩擦目前看有缓解迹象，您如何评判它对我们四季度贸易以及国内消费的影响？　　

I have two questions. First, we have noticed that, in September, the value-added growth rate of the industrial sector was 1.4 percentage points higher than August. Was that a sign of recovery? What was the reason behind the growth? My second question is: what's your view on the pork price and its development trend? Will this factor restrain the country's monetary policy? And there is one more question. Currently, the trade tension between China and the United States seems to be eased a little bit. What's your view on its influence on China's trade and domestic consumption in Q4?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

第一个问题，关于工业增速。从1-9月份来看，规模以上工业增加值增速5.6%，和1-8月份是持平的，其中9月份的增长速度比8月加快1.4个百分点。这个加快有几个原因：一是去年9月当期的基数相对低，二是9月份一部分企业在季末有加快生产销售的计划安排，三是从工业自身情况来看，由于市场预期，企业扩大生产的动力有所增强。至于下一步工业增长，一方面有下行压力，另一方面也有支撑因素，工业大概率是保持基本平稳的走势。

Your first question is about the growth rate of the industrial sector. In the first nine months, the value-added growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.6%, nearly the same with the figure achieved in the first eight months. Specifically, the figure in September was 1.4 percentage points higher than August. There were several reasons for the increase. First, when calculating the increase, the figure of last September was relatively low. Second, since September was the end of the quarter, some enterprises decided to accelerate their production. Third, due to market expectations, some enterprises had a stronger will to expand production. In the future, there will be both downward pressure and conducive factors for growth, leaving the growth rate of the industrial sector basically unchanged.

第二个问题，关于猪肉价格、CPI以及对货币政策的影响。居民消费价格CPI最近几个月涨幅有所扩大，9月同比上涨3.0%，其中食品价格涨幅要大一些，贡献超过70%，食品中猪肉的贡献又更大一点，猪肉涨幅接近70%，猪肉对CPI的拉动是1.65个百分点，贡献率是55%。怎么看猪肉价格对CPI的影响呢？CPI尽管涨幅有所扩大，但主要是结构性因素影响，主要是猪肉等少数食品价格上涨带来的上升。从核心CPI来看，9月只上涨1.5%，累计来看平均涨幅是2.5%，也是温和上涨。所以，9月CPI涨幅扩大主要是以猪肉为代表的少数食品价格上涨因素带来的。从下阶段来看，工业消费品供给比较充裕，价格比较稳定。服务价格是温和上涨态势。食品价格由于受农业生产、粮食生产可能获得大丰收的影响，为食品价格的基本稳定奠定了比较好的基础。关于猪肉价格，由于当前非洲猪瘟疫情得到了比好的控制，从中央到地方出台了一系列稳定猪肉生产的政策，随着政策效果的不断显现，猪肉的供求关系会逐步得到缓解，价格经过一段时间会回归到正常区间。

Your second question is about the pork price, CPI and the impact on monetary policy. In the recent months, the CPI grew at a relatively faster rate. In September, it increased 3.0% year-on-year, and food price increased even faster. About 70% of the increase of CPI came from the food sector. To be specific, the pork price increase was the main driver, as it rose almost 70%. Taking a broader view, the pork price drove up CPI by 1.65 percentage points, accounting 55% of the total growth rate.

How to understand pork price's impact on CPI? The CPI had been rising at a faster speed, but this was mainly because of structural factors. The increase was mainly caused by the price rise of pork and some other food products. If we take a look at the core CPI, the figure only rose 1.5% in September, and 2.5% on average in the first nine months. The rise was mild. Therefore, the growth of CPI in September was caused by the price rise of some food products, pork in particular.

In the next stage, the supply of industrial goods will be adequate, leaving their prices basically stable, and service products will see a mild price rise. As for the food sector, since a bumper harvest is expected, prices will remain basically stable. Regarding pork, since the African swine fever has been brought under control, and the previous policies launched by the central and local governments have shown significant effect, the problems concerning the supply and demand of pork will gradually be solved, and pork price will be return to a normal range.

从消费价格来看，有的人认为价格逼近3%，出现了通胀，也有人说，价格扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI比上半年是回落的，PPI同比是下降的，是不是通缩？实际上没有通胀，也不存在通缩，价格总体还是平稳的。这样的话货币政策还是有比较充裕的操作空间。所以，货币政策会根据经济运行的情况变化相机抉择。

Regarding consumer price, some people were worried if there would be inflation, because the price rise approached 3%, while some others felt there was actually a deflationary trend, because the core CPI, with the price of food and energy excluded, actually rose at a slower rate from the first half of this year, and the PPI even dropped down year-on-year. In fact, there was neither inflation nor deflation, and the price level was basically stable. Therefore, there is adequate room to launch monetary policies, and the authorities will devise policies in accordance with the real situation.

关于中美经贸摩擦。近期中美经贸磋商取得了阶段性成果，这是好事，对中美两国有积极作用，对全球也是一个好的信号。全球经济包括全球贸易越来越朝着减少保护、往开放方向发展，世界经济包括中国经济都会有更好的发展。

Now, I'll answer the question about China-U.S. trade friction. Recently, substantial progress was achieved in the negotiations. This is good news. It will leave a positive influence on the two countries, and will send a positive message to the world. The global economy and international trade are developing towards a direction of less protectionism and more openness. The global economy, including that of China, will see better development.

路透社记者:

Reuters:

关于就业的问题。尽管三季度我们的经济下行到6.0%，但是从调查失业率数字看没有明显的上升，9月为5.2%，比7月略有下降。你能解释一下原因是什么吗？

My question is about employment. Although economic growth fell to 6.0% in the third quarter, there was no obvious increase in the survey-based unemployment rate, which was 5.2% in September, slightly lower than July. Can you explain why?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

一般来说，就业和经济增长是高度相关的。为什么经济增速有所放缓，但是就业形势总体平稳？这个问题可以从几个角度来看。

In general, employment and economic growth are highly correlated. Why did the economic growth slow down, while the employment situation remained generally stable? This question can be answered from several perspectives.

第一，经济增长速度尽管略有放缓，但是这个速度放在全球还是比较不错的。另外，随着经济体量的扩大，每增长一个百分点带来的经济增量也是在扩大的。经济增量在扩大，能够吸纳的就业规模也是在增长。

First, despite a slight slowdown, the economic growth rate remained relatively good from a global perspective. In addition, with the growth in size, the economic increment brought about by every one percentage point increase is also growing. And with the growth of economic increment, the number of job opportunities able to be absorbed is also growing.　

第二，和现在的产业结构变化也有比较大的关系。刚才讲到服务业保持比较快的增长，服务业增加值占GDP比重在继续提高。服务业总体来看是就业的蓄水池，这样的产业结构对就业的吸纳能力在不断地增强，或者说经济增长的就业弹性在增加，这也是一个重要原因。

Second, there is also a close relationship between the employment situation and the change of industrial structures. As mentioned before, the service industry has maintained relatively rapid growth, and the proportion of added value of the sector in GDP continues to increase. The sector as a whole is like a reservoir of employment. With such an industrial structure, the capacity to absorb employment is constantly increasing. In other words, the employment elasticity of economic growth has increased, which is another important reason.　

第三，国家出台了积极的就业政策。比如说，推动大众创业万众创新，实施更加灵活的就业政策等，特别是对重点就业群体的就业开展帮扶，如增加就业培训等这样一系列政策也取得了比较好的效果。

Third, the government has launched a series of active employment policies. For example, we have advanced business startups and innovation initiatives as well as other more flexible approaches to create new jobs. We have paid particular attention to the employment of key groups, for example, by increasing professional training. Such a series of policies have achieved good results.

第四，中国的新产业、新业态、新商业模式不断兴起壮大，也为就业规模的扩大、就业容量的拓展提供了空间。

Fourth, new industries, sectors and business models are continuously emerging and growing, which also helps provide more job opportunities.　

综合这些因素来看，尽管我们经济增速小幅放缓，但就业形势总体保持平稳。但还要看到，就业内部有一些结构性矛盾。比如，全国城镇调查失业率是比较平稳的，但是也有个别地区调查失业率比较高，青年人的失业率比整体失业率高一些，大学生就业相对困难一点。现在结构性的矛盾是，一方面企业招工难，同时还有一部分大学生就业也比较难。但总的来看，就业市场是比较平稳的，当然就业结构性矛盾也需要关注。

Based on these factors, although our economic growth has slowed down slightly, the overall employment situation remains stable. However, we should also be aware of some structural contradictions. For example, the survey-based urban unemployment rate is relatively stable, but there are still some areas where the unemployment rate is relatively high; the unemployment rate for young people is higher than the overall unemployment rate, and it is relatively difficult for college graduates to find jobs. The current structural contradiction is that, on the one hand, it is difficult for enterprises to recruit workers; on the other hand, it is difficult for some college graduates to find jobs. In general, the employment market is relatively stable, but we should continue to pay close attention to structural contradictions.

谢谢。

Thank you.

中央广播电视总台央广记者:

CNR:

刚才毛司长已经提到今年猪肉价格是在上涨过程中。国家也在加大猪肉保供力度，你也提到需要一段时间让价格进行平抑，后几个月价格是不是就会得到平抑？另外，有分析认为，国家统计局在编制CPI时对猪肉的权重进行了调整。请问是否存在这一情况？谢谢。

Mr. Mao just mentioned that the pork price has been on the rise this year. China has stepped up efforts to guarantee pork supply. You said more time is needed to control the price. Will the price be steady in the next few months? And analysts have said there is an adjustment in the proportion of pork in the CPI when the National Bureau of Statistics was calculating it. Is that true? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

两个问题都和CPI有关。猪肉价格9月环比涨幅在收窄，但同比涨幅在扩大。下一阶段，随着政策逐步落实到位，猪肉供给或者生猪供给会逐步增加，供求关系紧张局面会逐步得到缓解。猪肉价格经过一段时间的调整，会逐步回归到常态。

Both of your questions are about the CPI. The growth of pork price in September fell on a month-over-month basis, but grew year-on-year. In the next stage, with further implementation of various policies, the supply of pork will increase, and the current tense situation will ease. The pork price should be back to normal in a few months after adjustment.

第二个问题，我注意到最近网上有一些讨论，是不是猪肉的权重进行了调整。这是一个比较专业的问题，我利用这个机会给大家作一些介绍。国家统计局的价格统计调查经过了多年不断发展和完善，应该说已经比较成熟，统计和编制的方法完全和国际接轨，国际同行也是高度肯定的，我们的价格数据公信力也是比较高的。我们计算价格指数的时候采用的方法为链式拉氏计算方法，和国际是一致的。具体来说CPI怎么算呢？我们要统计这么多的商品和服务的价格变动情况，但不可能所有商品和服务都纳入进来，所以要选择有代表性的商品和服务作为观察对象，我们叫做“篮子”。随着时间的推移，商品和服务会发生变化，前几年有代表性的，过两年又有新的出现，就没有代表性了，新的又要纳入到这个“篮子”里，所以我们要选择一个“基期”，这也比较重要。有了“基期”、有了“篮子”，就要来确定“篮子”里商品和服务的权重。

Your second question is more professional. I would like to take this opportunity to give you some introductions about it. Over the years of development, the price survey system of NBS has grown relatively mature. The collection and compilation of the price index are in line with international standards and recognized by international counterparts. The method we use to calculate the price index is the Chain-type Laspeyres Formula, which is in line with international standards. So how to calculate CPI? We need to know how the price of goods and services are changing. However, we can only select representative ones to observe, which we call the "basket". As these representative ones may change over time, we need to select new goods or services to be included in the "basket" on a regular basis. We also need to identify the portion of the different parts in the "basket".

基期怎么确定呢？逢0和逢5的年份作为价格统计的基期，这与国际上也是一致的。比如，现在价格统计就是以2015年为基期，根据基期我们要选定有代表性的商品和服务，怎么选择？要严格按照住户调查相关资料来确定。一旦确定了商品和服务，以及它们的数量，这个篮子就固定下来了。所以叫固定基期、固定篮子。固定篮子以后，要看篮子里的商品和服务的变化情况，每一种商品和服务是有权重的。权重怎么确定？是根据这一类商品和服务的消费支出占整个篮子里的总支出比重作为权重的。比如说，9月的CPI，算环比，如猪肉用什么样的权重，就是8月猪肉的消费支出在整个消费支出中的比重作为它的权重；算猪肉9月的同比涨幅，用上年9月猪肉消费支出占整个消费支出的比重作为权重。这样每个月基期是固定的、篮子是固定的，但是权重是有变化的。权重变化是根据这类商品和服务的支出在整个支出中的比重作为权重的，没有进行人为调整。权重月度间确实有变化，社会上还是有学者关注这个问题。

How often should we change the components of the "basket"? Every five years, we undertake this change, such as in a year ending in 0 or 5. This is also in line with international standards. For example, the current CPI is based in 2015. We need to choose the representative goods and services. And this is conducted in strict accordance with the information provided by households. Once the content and number of the goods and services are identified, we need to check the variation of them in the "basket". And every part has its own proportion. So, how to make sure this is right? For example, to know the CPI, we should know how much the purchase of pork took up in total expenditure. We calculate it with the real data of expenditure, and no one will change the number on purpose, but indeed, it will change from month to month.　

另外，居民消费价格的变化基本反映了价格变动特点和趋势。借这个机会，我也想多说两句，我们讲统计数据更多是宏观数据，是一种综合指标，是对全社会中所有经济体、所有经济活动的一个综合的、平均的反映，反映的是一个整体的情况。这里难免有不同的群体、不同的个体感受和整体数据不一致的情况。有时候如果简单用结构数据或者个体数据去推断总体的情况，也会产生一些偏差。在3%的CPI中，尽管猪肉价格涨幅比较高，但猪肉的权重或者猪肉消费占整个消费支出比重只有2%多一些，还有90%多的工业消费品、其他食品和服务，它们的价格有的小幅上涨，有的下降，有的温和上涨，加权平均之后，得到3%的涨幅，这反映了当前价格变化的基本特点。谢谢。

Fluctuations in the price changes basically reflect the characteristics and trends of the change. The data we calculated is more like a complex index. It reflects the general performance of business entities and general situation of business activities in the whole society. Meanwhile, different groups or individuals, of course, may feel the differences more acutely. Though the pork price grew sharply, the proportion of total expenditure is only some 2%. Meanwhile, there are industrial products, food and other services, which are accounting for over 90% of the total, and registered rise or decline. We put all of these together to calculate. Therefore, in September, the consumer price went up by 3% year-on-year. Thank you.

第一财经记者:

China Business Network:

前三季度全国房地产开发投资同比增长10.5%，您认为这种两位数的增长是否可持续？您如何看待房地产对于经济的拉动作用？谢谢。

In the first three quarters, the total investment in real estate development achieved year-on-year growth of 10.5%. Do you think this double-digit growth can be sustained? What's your opinion on real estate's contribution to economic growth? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

您提的两个问题。关于房地产市场，第一还是坚持房子是用来住的不是用来炒的基本定位。当前从房价来看比较平稳，房地产开发投资的增长速度，今年1-9月累计增速基本稳定在10%以上，投资也比较平稳，房地产的销售略有下降。从这几个主要指标看，房地产市场总体比较平稳。另外，从其他几个方面的情况看，包括房价的情况、土地销售的情况，房地产市场总体保持了基本平稳的走势。

In regard to your first question about the real estate market, we have reinforced the principle that houses are for living in, not for speculation. Currently, housing prices are stable; and the growth of investment in real estate market from January to September has been kept basically above 10%, which means stability. Meanwhile, real estate sales have slightly decreased. Based on these indicators, we can say we have maintained general stability in the real estate market. This is also the case in regard to land sales.

第二个房地产的拉动作用。房地产的定位很明确“房住不炒”，也不把房地产作为短期拉动刺激经济的手段。房地产的发展，总的来看是平稳、健康、有序的。

As for real estate's contribution to economic growth, similarly, housing demand should not be speculative and investment-driven. Real estate will not be used as a short-term stimulus for economic growth. The sector's development is generally stable, healthy, and orderly.

金融时报记者:

Financial Times:

刚才提到，今年中国会发行专项债来支持基建投资，根据我们了解，专项债的要求是收益和偿债能力能够对应，现在很多地方反映，他们缺乏能产生非常好的收益的基建项目，这对基建项目有什么影响？

Just now it has been mentioned that China will issue special bonds to support infrastructure projects. Based on our understanding, the requirement of special bonds is that the revenue should match the capacity of debt repayment. As many local governments insist there is a lack of profitable infrastructure projects, how will this influence their development?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

这个问题由财政部门或者其他部门回答更好。我谈谈我个人的理解。

This issue can be better addressed by my colleagues of the Ministry of Finance or other government bodies. However, I will answer it based on my own understanding.

发行地方专项债，去年发行了1.35万亿，今年加大了力度，增加了8000亿，约为2.15万亿，发行基本告一段落。下一步，专项债要逐步形成实务工作量，逐步把这些项目落实到位。发行过程中，中央政府或者有关部门已经考虑到地方债务承受能力，地方政府债务有分类管理，债务水平高一点的地方，额度可能小一点，偿债能力更好、经济发展潜力更大、发展水平更好、项目盈利前景更好的地方，专项债发的额度可能就高一些。下一步通过专项债的发行，希望更好地带动民间资本一起做好基础建设。谢谢。

Last year, China issued 1.35 trillion yuan of local government special bonds. The figure this year has been raised to 2.15 trillion yuan, and our work in this field has basically concluded. Next, these special bonds need to be implemented on specific projects. During the issuing process, the central government and other government bodies consider local governments' capacity of debt repayment, and a categorized management system has been established regarding the amount of special bonds issued. For example, a local government with a higher debt level will receive only a comparatively small amount of special bonds; meanwhile those with stronger capacity in debt repayment, huge potential and a high level of development, as well as promising investment future, will be issued a much larger amount. We hope special bonds can function as the guide for private capital to improve the development of infrastructure. Thank you.

香港经济通通讯社记者:

ET Net:

之前发言人提到汽车消费的降幅在逐步收窄。请问，在各地陆续解除汽车限购的情况下，已经刺激了汽车的消费，您如何看待仍然消费低迷的情况，以及未来需求增长空间在哪里？谢谢。

Mr. Mao mentioned earlier that the decrease in vehicle purchases is slowing. Although the limitation on vehicle purchases has been lifted and purchase encouraged, overall sales remain sluggish. What's your opinion on this? Which areas of demand will experience further growth in the future? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

整个消费市场不能算低迷，消费还是保持了比较好的增长态势。从社会消费品零售总额来看，前9个月增长8.2%，如果扣除汽车影响，实际增长9%以上。社会消费品零售总额包含的服务比较少，如果服务消费一起考虑进去，从内部测算的服务零售额增长速度是两位数的。从居民消费支出来看，居民人均服务性消费的增长也是在10%以上，从前三季度服务性消费的比重来看，已经超过了“半壁江山”，所以我们把服务消费和实物消费放在一起来看，消费的增长速度应该是在9%以上，这个速度是不低的，是比较好的增长态势。

The overall consumer market is actually not sluggish, as consumption has continued to grow. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods achieved a year-on-year rise of 8.2%. Excluding automobiles, it actually grew by more than 9%. However, total retail sales of consumer goods only cover a fairly small number of service categories; if all kinds of services were included, there would be a double-digit increase based on our calculation. In terms of consumer spending, the per capita rate in regard to services also registered an increase of more than 10%. The proportion of consumption expenditure on services in the first three quarters in 2019 accounts for more than 50% of total spending. Therefore, if the consumption of goods and services were considered as a whole, the growth would reach more than 9%, which is rather optimistic.

说到汽车，从去年5月份开始，汽车生产销售出现回落。汽车生产放缓，世界上其他国家也出现这样的情况，目前从汽车保有量来看，中国还有增长空间和潜力。至于你说的政策调整，部分城市有一些调整，汽车经过一段时间的调整，未来的空间和潜力将会是比较大的，比如，现在要推动二手车市场加快流转，包括逐步取消地方的限制性政策，通过二手车盘活带动新车市场成长壮大。总的来看，中国的汽车消费还是有增长空间的，整个消费还是会保持比较好的增长态势。谢谢。

Regarding automobiles, since last May, production and sales appear to have slowed. This phenomenon occurred in many other countries, as well. In terms of vehicle ownership, China still has room and potential to grow. As for the policy adjustment you've mentioned, there have been some shifts in some cities, and this can only enhance the huge developing potential. For example, we have accelerated the transfer of vehicles in the second-hand market. We have been gradually lifting the limitational policies at local government level, and boosting the market of new vehicle purchases by promoting that of second-hand ones. In general, vehicle purchases in China still have room to grow, and the overall consumption will maintain a positive trend. Thank you.

寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli:

一个小时的时间，毛司长回答了10位记者提出的16个问题。谢谢毛司长，谢谢各位记者朋友们，今天的发布会就到这里。

Thank you, Mr. Mao, and friends from the media. Today's press conference is hereby concluded.

文章来源：国新办
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