美“亚太再平衡”战略失道寡助
Asia-Pacific Rebalance, an Unjust Strategy That Finds Little Support
中国国际问题研究院国际战略研究所副所长 苏晓晖
Su Xiaohui, Deputy Director of the Department for International and Strategic Studies at the China Institute of International Studies
2016年5月30日
May 30, 2016
近期，美国总统奥巴马到访越南和日本，力推“亚太再平衡”战略，受到广泛关注。有西方媒体为该战略叫好，甚至宣称“美有能力与那些中国对其感到担忧的邻国建立更强的同盟关系”。
During his recent visit to Vietnam and Japan, U.S. President Barack Obama has been advocating the Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy, drawing wide attention from the international community. Some western media even applaud this kind of strategy, claiming that the U.S. is capable of building stronger alliance ties with countries that are China’s concerns.
“亚太再平衡”是奥巴马政府对外政策的重中之重。从设计看，该战略包括3个方面，而这3个方面也贯穿奥巴马此次亚洲之行始终。
The Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy is a top priority in the foreign policy of the Obama administration. From the content, the strategy includes three aspects, which were thoroughly highlighted in Obama’s trip this time.
第一，增加美在亚太地区军事存在并提高美对地区安全事务的介入能力。奥巴马访越期间，两国发表联合声明，其中包括加强安全与防卫合作的内容。美政府决定全面解除对越销售致命武器的禁令，并承诺帮助越提升海上能力。“美军重返金兰湾”，是美与越认真探讨的重要问题之一。
First of all, is the increased military presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region and its strengthened engagement in regional security affairs. During Obama’s visit to Vietnam, both sides issued a joint statement, pledging to step up cooperation in security, defense, and other areas.
The U.S. government has fully lifted its embargo on sales of lethal arms to Vietnam, and promised to help improve Vietnam’s maritime ability. The “Return of U.S. Forces to Cam Ranh Bay” is among the key topics of discussion between the U.S. and Vietnam.
第二，谋求美对亚太地区经济秩序的影响及掌控能力。“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”（TPP）成为美重要抓手，而越日都是TPP参与方。奥巴马访越期间，大谈TPP对越经济增长、就业等方面的益处，承诺为越提供技术援助、能力建设等方面的支持，以促进越尽快批准并全面执行这一所谓的“高标准”协议。
Secondly, is the seeking of influence and control over economic order in the Asia-Pacific region. The Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP), with Vietnam and Japan on board, has become a crucial stepping point for the U.S. Obama administration which has raved about the benefits that the TPP will bring to economic growth and the boosting of employment in Vietnam and has vowed to offer technical support as well as capability-building assistance to the Southeast Asian country, in a bid to persuade the Vietnamese side to approve and fully carry out this so-called “high-standard” agreement as soon as possible.
第三，提升美与亚太地区国家的沟通和协作能力。美致力于推动与日本等传统盟友关系，巩固同盟体系。应日方要求，奥巴马打破惯例，成为第一位在任期内访问广岛的美国总统。此举颇有对日示好、拉近美日同盟关系之意。同时，美重视与地区国家建立伙伴关系，打造关系网络。美越明确，将强化政治与外交纽带，并有意开展由外交部长和国防部长参加的“2+2”会谈，进一步发展“全面伙伴关系”。
Thirdly, is the promotion in the regards of communication and coordination abilities between the U.S. and Asia-Pacific countries. The U.S. is committed to consolidate alliance ties with Japan and other traditional allies. Per the request of Japan, Obama visited Hiroshima, making him the first active U.S. president to do so. Such a move is clearly intended to bring closer together the U.S.-Japan alliance.
In the meantime, the U.S. is also developing partnerships with regional countries in order to build a relationship network. The U.S. and Vietnam have made it clear that the two countries will strengthen political and diplomatic bonds and intends to launch “2+2” meetings between both Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers, so as to further enrich the “comprehensive partnership”.
显然，奥巴马此次访亚是紧紧围绕“亚太再平衡”战略主题展开的，有着多重目的，牵制中国的意图明显，但现实恐难如其所愿。
Obama’s trip to Japan and Vietnam this time is obviously centered on the Asia-Pacific strategy with multiple agendas. Through clearly intending to restrain China, the U.S. may not get what it wishes for.
在军事部署方面，美加强在亚太地区军事存在，尤其是在南海的肆意横行引发局势紧张，更引起地区国家的忧虑。在经济合作领域，伴随奥巴马访越，有媒体指出TPP的实施将使大量越南生产的鞋子等产品涌入美国，引起美国内部分利益团体担忧及对政府不满。越也不会因加入TPP而放弃其他选择，并在实际上已经加入“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”（RCEP）以及中国倡导建立的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）。在同盟伙伴关系方面，奥巴马访问广岛备受争议，引发韩国不满；越实行多样化的对外政策，不会轻易在大国之间选边站队，更不愿将自身绑上美国的战车。
In terms of military deployment, more frequent military presence of U.S. troops, especially its reckless behavior in the South China Sea, has triggered tension and concerns among regional countries.
As for economic cooperation, several media have pointed out that the implementation of the TPP could let more Vietnam-made commodities, such as shoes, flood into the U.S. market, which will bring about concerns from domestic interest groups and cause dissatisfaction within the government.
On the other hand, TPP membership will not convince Vietnam to relinquish other options. In fact, Vietnam has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Obama’s visit to Hiroshima has also drawn controversy from U.S. allies, for example, South Korea. Due to its diverse foreign policies, Vietnam will not easily choose sides between major countries, let alone be tied to the U.S. “chariot”.
美“亚太再平衡”战略之所以不能“一帆风顺”，归根结底是由于它“先天不足”：基于美国自身利益的排他性而非包容性，有违经济全球化深入发展趋势，更与和平与发展的时代潮流相背离。这样的战略，失道寡助，焉能如愿？
The Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy has been through a “rough ride”. The reason for this is that the strategy is ultimately based on the exclusiveness of America’s own interests, instead of inclusiveness. It goes against the trend of in-depth development of economic globalization and the epoch tide of peace and development. Unjust and with little support, how can such a strategy be realized?
