第二十三届韩素音青年翻译奖竞赛参考译文（英译汉）
英译汉竞赛原文：
Are We There Yet?
America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
Battling on the bus
America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences. A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.
Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.
Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall Street’s excesses caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why Mr. Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.
This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery. America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obama’s fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making tax cuts for the middle class permanent.
Ways to overhaul the engine
In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream. Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy, minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground for tomorrow’s fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.
A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to write down loans. They all have drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system and harm the recovery.
Cleaning up the housing market would help cut America’s unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to where jobs are. But more must be done to stop high joblessness becoming entrenched. Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the cost of hiring would help. (The health-care reform, alas, does the opposite, at least for small businesses.) Politicians will also have to think harder about training schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs require.
Americans are used to great distances. The sooner they, and their politicians, accept that the road to recovery will be a long one, the faster they will get there.
我们到了吗？
美国这一次的经济复苏将比以往多数衰退都要慢得多，不过政府倒是能助一臂之力。
“美利坚，汝欲何往？”①半个世纪前，杰克·凯鲁亚克代表“垮掉的一代“曾如是发问。如今，这也是笼罩这世界经济的最大的疑问，也反映了美国选民最大的忧虑。11月2日国会中期选举在即，而美国的失业率至今盘踞在10%左右，挥之不去。前路漫漫，道阻且远，他们理应有所准备。
自上世纪30年代以来最为严重的经济衰退已于一年前结束，只是经济复苏起步伊始本就不够强劲，又在今年年初骤然缓慢下来。第二季度国内生产总值的年化增长率只有区区1.6%，而且似乎自此一直在此徘徊。对购买住房的临时税收激励政策到期之后，房地产市场便又一蹶不振。私有领域创造的就业岗位所增无几，因而失业率看来可能会不降反升。整个夏天人们都在担心，忧虑倘若复苏持续放缓，美国经济极有可能再次滑进衰退的深渊。
所幸，这些担忧现在看来是有些杞人忧天了。第二季度国内生产总值增长乏力，部分原因可能是美国从中国的进口暂时性激增。最新的统计显示，8月零售额还说得过去，失业补贴申请人数有所下降，连同其他最新的数据，都表明经济虽说依然低迷，但并不是在继续下滑。历史经验表明，经济复苏初期的一两个季度内常常波动，但极少会再次陷入衰退。目前来看，美国的经济很可能会以2.5%左右的增速缓慢爬升，这比停滞期的增速高一些，但回升的速度远不足以带动失业率下降。
美国经济一向能从衰退中迅速反弹，为何此次的前景却如此黯淡？这是因为，以往的衰退大多是由货币政策紧缩而引起的，一旦政策放宽，需求就会反弹。然而这次经济衰退确实金融危机的产物。金融危机过后，银行系统需要整顿，资产结构需要重组，因而经济复苏通常都会孱弱而恢复缓慢。这个债务削减的阶段一般会持续七年的时间，也就是说，美国可能要到2014年才能恢复正常。美国家庭正在采取措施清偿债务，清偿的速度也异常地快，但要说这一过程已经过了一半多，恐怕就连乐观的预言家也不会苟同。
车往何处开 两党打嘴仗
美国现在最大的问题是，政客们还不肯承认经济正堵在一条漫长而行进缓慢的复苏路上，更别说为即将遭遇的问题有所准备。少数勇敢的官员已敲响了警钟，指出失业率可能会“居高不下”。但政治上的辩论更多的是在争论谁该为衰退承担责任，并不是为了增强复苏活力而提出创造性的意见。
共和党人称，巴拉克·奥巴马转而执行“大政府”政策是经济疲软的原因，且失业率居高不下，也证明财政刺激是一步臭棋。实际上，强化政府干预大多是一种临时调控手段，实属不得以而为之，而之后较长一段时期内政府的干预会更为节制，何况这反映的还是奥巴马及其前任两届总统的政策。那种认为失业率高便“证明”财政刺激无效的说法完全是错误的。金融危机的内在规律性告诉我们，若不执行财政刺激政策，经济衰退势必更加严重。
在这场问责游戏中，民主党人自有“阶级斗争“论，认为华尔街的恣意妄为才是导致衰退的原因，而对高收入者群体征收更多的赋税则是解决办法之一。因此，在中期选举之前，奥巴马在立法上优先考虑的，是要确保年收入在25万美元以上的家庭，在布什任上通过的减税法案年底到期后不再享受减税，而其他人则继续享受。
然而，这么做会给短期复苏带来不必要的风险。美国1937年和日本1997年的经历都是证据，足以说明如果增税不合时宜，原本疲软的经济即有可能再次滑向衰退之中。在财政刺激政策逐步减弱、各州财政逐渐减紧缩的情况下，联邦政府对高收入人群加税将使本已增长乏力的经济更加无力增长。此外，奥巴马政府的财政计划将对中产阶级长期减税，这种做法会使政府的中期预算变得更糟，而注意到这一点的人更少。
经济发动机 亟需大修理
一种理想的情况是，美国应着手中期税收改革，削减政府开支以控制预算，并为继续保持一段时期的宽松政策留出空间。但在党派纷争激烈的华盛顿，这种理想简直是白日做梦。时至今日，政府只能调低目标，呵护脆弱的经济，尽量消除不确定性，并为日后两党就财政问题展开辩论做好准备。为此，国会应将布什政府所有的减税政策延期至2013年，那时这些减税政策将全部到期，届时经济局面已经好转，自然会引起对经济发动机的一场认真的财政大改革。
一系列更为广泛的政策也许有助于更快地驱散这次衰退的阴霾。首先，应鼓励对住房抵押债务更多地进行资产减记。在持有抵押贷款的美国人中，所负债务比自己房子的市价还要高的约占四分之一。倘若这一局面不加以改变，那么越来越多的人将会丧事房屋抵押赎回权，而房价却越跌越低，从而形成恶性循环。目前还有许多设想可供参考，比如修改破产法，由法官来重组抵押债务，或者授权专门的托管机构对贷款进行资产减记。这些设想各有缺点，但总不能听任一大堆污水一般的抵押债务，像日本曾经对“僵尸“企业的贷款那样继续侵蚀金融系统，危害经济复苏。
清理房市有利于人们把家搬往能够找到工作的地方，从而有助于降低美国的失业率。但为了防止高失业率积重难返，政府需要做的工作还有许多。可以减免和抵免工资所得税以降低企业的雇佣成本将有助于降低失业率。（至少医疗保健改革，哼，效果只会适得其反，至少对小企业是这样。）政客们还需要就职业培训计划多动动脑子，因为一些工人缺乏新近出现的工作所需要的技能。
美国人早已习惯了长途跋涉。美国人及其政客们都应该接受这一现实：复苏路漫漫，接受得越早，抵达目的地也就越快。
注①：出自美国作家杰克·凯鲁亚克（Jack Kerouac, 1922-1969）小说《在路上》。
