第二十三届韩素音青年翻译奖竞赛参考译文（汉译英）

摩天大楼指数——如影随形的经济危机

作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。

“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁·劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。”

雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？

1999年，安德鲁·劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。

20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。

I摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？

首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。

其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。

就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的“黄金状态”构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。

所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。

The Skyscraper Index: A Foreshadowing of Economic Crisis

For politicians and the public at large, skyscrapers—gigantic buildings backed by huge economic power—are a symbol of social progress and economic prosperity. Contrary to this popular belief, some economists argue that the emergence of skyscrapers and those reaching new heights in particular, would more often than not precede economic downturns.

“The market goes down as tall buildings go up.” That was the assertion made in 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, a securities analyst at Deutsche Bank. At the Lehman Brothers’ global economic conference held in Beijing on February 15, 2006, John Llewellyn, Lehman’s global chief economist, alerted his Chinese clients to the “skyscraper index,” predicting that “if a global crisis strikes, it will probably be in 2007 or 2008.”

Despite his accurate prediction for the 2007-08 economic crisis, Llewellyn never envisioned that the century-old financial empire would go up in smoke amid the crisis. Are skyscrapers a crowning glory or a clinging curse for the world economy? And is there indeed a close connection between skyscrapers and economic crises?

In 1999, Andrew Lawrence, based on his research, formulated what he called the “skyscraper index,” showing a correlation between the construction of skyscrapers and subsequent economic downturns. In fact, the completion of each new record-setting skyscraper is often followed by an economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the world has seen four major skyscraper booms, each accompanied by an economic crisis or a round of financial turbulence.

In the 1920s, concurrent with overall economic recovery and the strongest rebound ever seen in the stock market, the United States went on a wild residential and commercial building spree. During this period, three record-breaking skyscrapers began to be built in succession. Within the three years from 1929 to 1931, 40 Wall Street, the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building were completed in New York. What followed, however, was not a new wave of prosperity, but the Great Depression unprecedented in history. Similarly, after a period of strong and sustained economic boom in the 1960s, known to Americans as the “Golden Age,” construction began on the World Trade Center in New York and the Sears Tower in Chicago. The two new record-setting skyscrapers were completed in 1972 and 1974 respectively. Soon afterwards, the global economy sank heavily into stagflation.

The correlation between supertall buildings and economic crises is too close to be coincidental. What is it then that keeps them so closely tied to each other?

Firstly, human nature is at play. One of the negative aspects of human nature is blind confidence, which is reflected in the fact that humans look at things in a way that is stubbornly subjective due to their inadequate understanding of the actual world. Indeed, Lawrence himself described his index correlating skyscrapers with economic downturns as an “unhealthy 100-year correlation.” Things of that kind have existed in human society for well over 100 years. Looking back, one may readily find similar events that unfolded during the long span of Chinese history. In the heyday of the Shang Dynasty, King Zhou ordered the construction of Lutai (Stag Gallery) , which aroused great indignation and condemnation among his people. And it was at Lutai that King Zhou ended up burning himself to death. During the most glorious years of the Qing Dynasty, Emperor Qianlong launched large-scale landscaping projects, resulting in the decline of national strength and a humiliating loss of sovereignty.

Secondly, profit is a motive. All business activities are profit-driven in nature. An economic boom is often preceded by a cycle of low interest rates, which serves as a precondition for the boom. In the process of economic growth, interest returns are always lower than expected, which creates a succession of interest transmission channels—a chain of vested interest groups (as mentioned earlier). The economic boom, combined with relatively lower interest rates, exerts a direct influence on land prices, business demand and easy access to financial support, a plan is conceived for the construction of yet another record-setting skyscraper.

Just as day follows night in a 24-hour period and seasonal variations occur in a year, the economy undergoes a boom-bust cycle, and all commodity prices respond to the forces of supply and demand. As the Chinese saying goes, anything that reaches its s climax returns cyclically to its opposite extreme. A market demand for the construction of skyscrapers emerges from what is called the “golden climate,” which is created by a combination of factors: lower interest rates, business expansion, rising capital prices, and a general mood of excessive optimism among the vast majority of the public. However, such a “golden climate” never lasts long.

It is therefore quite common that no sooner is a skyscraper completed than the economy enters a recession and then is thrown into deeper distress by the time the skyscraper is put to use. This best reveals the inseparable correlation between skyscrapers and economic downturns. Indeed, the world’s tallest buildings often stand as monuments to past prosperity.