2019年2月12日，驻加拿大大使卢沙野在加《渥太华生活》杂志发表题为《中国在“崩溃论”的伴奏中发展壮大》的署名文章。全文如下：
On February 12, 2019, Ottawa Life Magazine published a signed article by Ambassador Lu Shaye titled “China Grows amid Voices Chanting Its Collapse”. Here is the full text:
中国在“崩溃论”的伴奏中发展壮大
China Grows amid Voices Chanting Its Collapse
近期，一些西方媒体掀起了新一轮的“中国崩溃论”，这并不奇怪。每当中国经济稍有放缓、股市出现波动时，这种论调总会“如约而至”。然而，中国经济每次都会如凤凰涅槃般在经历阵痛后再度腾飞，让唱衰中国者“铩羽而归”。
There is no surprise that a new round of the “China collapse theories” has recently been stirred up by some Western media. Such voices will never be absent when there is a slight slowdown in China’s economy or fluctuations in stock market. However, like the nirvana of the phoenix, China’s economy always thrives after growing pains, frustrating those anticipating the otherwise.
当前世界经济面临深刻调整，主要经济体政策调整外溢效应凸显，特别是单边主义和保护主义已成为影响全球经济平稳运行的大敌，经济全球化遭遇波折，多边主义和自由贸易体制受到冲击。世界银行、国际货币基金组织、世贸组织等纷纷下调全球经济增长预期和货物贸易增长预期。2018年全球股市缩水12万亿美元，美国三大股指和欧洲股市均创十年最差表现，亚洲股市也未能幸免。
The world economy today is facing profound adjustments, and the spillover effect of policy shifts in major economies becomes increasingly prominent. In particular, unilateralism and protectionism have become main factors influencing global economic stability; economic globalization suffers backlash; and multilateralism and free trade system are under testing. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have all lowered their expectations on the growth of the world economy and trade in goods. A total USD 12 trillion was wiped off global stock markets in 2018. Three major US stock indexes and European stock markets all witnessed their worst performance over the last decade, and Asian stock markets were not spared.
2018年中国经济运行依然总体平稳、稳中有进，国内生产总值（GDP）实现6.6%的增长，符合预期目标，首次迈上90万亿元人民币台阶；新增就业1361万人，连续6年超过1300万人；全年减少农村贫困人口1000万以上，对全球减贫事业作出巨大贡献；商品消费突破5.5万亿美元，增长9.1%，连续5年成为经济增长的第一拉动力，中国稳步迈向第一商品消费大国；实际使用外资1349.7亿美元，同比增长3%，创历史新高，世界银行将中国营商环境排名一次性提升32位；实现进出口总额4.62万亿美元，增长12.6%，创历史新高。
China’s economy in 2018 remained generally steady and made solid progress. Its GDP grew by 6.6% and exceeded RMB 90 trillion for the first time, meeting the targeted goal for growth. About 13.61 million new jobs were created in 2018, hitting the 13-million mark for the 6th year in a row. China reduced the number of poor people living in rural areas by over 10 million for the whole year, making great contributions to global poverty reduction. China steadily marched toward the world’s largest consumer of commodities. Commodity consumption reached USD 5.5 trillion in 2018 with a 9.1 percent increase, remaining the primary driving force for economic growth for five consecutive years. The actual utilization of foreign capital grew by 3 percent year on year to the record high USD 134.97 billion. China has moved 32 places upward in the World Bank ranking of the ease of doing business. Total volume of imports and exports reached USD 4.62 trillion with a 12.6-percent rise, making a new record.
穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。中国坚定不移地奉行互利共赢的开放战略，主动将关税总水平由9.8%降至7.5%，进一步扩大进口，放宽市场准入，完善营商环境，推动多双边合作深入发展，构建开放型世界经济，寻求与各国共享未来，为世界经济增长贡献中国力量。据世界银行最新数据，2018年中国对世界经济增长的贡献率接近三分之一，比美国高近10个百分点。中国全年对外直接投资1298.3亿美元，同比增长4.2%；“一带一路”倡议影响不断扩大，各方参与度不断提升，成果惠及世界；中国企业与德、英、法等国企业合作开拓第三方市场有序推进；举办世界首个以进口为主题的中国国际进口博览会，展示坚定支持贸易自由化和经济全球化、主动向世界开放市场的决心。美中贸易全国委员会近日的一份调查显示，90%的企业认为中国是最重要的市场之一，95%的企业表示未来一年将增加对华投入或保持现有投入水平。
As a Chinese aphorism goes, “Caught in difficulties, one should still hold himself to a high standard; when illustrious and influential, one should contribute to the well-being of all.” Unswervingly upholding the opening-up strategy featuring mutual benefit and win-win results, China reduced the overall tariff rate to 7.5 percent from 9.8 percent to further expand import, broadened market access, improved business environment, promoted in-depth development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation, built an open world economy and pursued a shared future with various countries. By doing so, China contributed its share to the world economic growth.
According to the latest statistics from the World Bank, China contributed nearly one third to the world economic growth in 2018, almost 10 percent higher than the US contribution. China’s outbound direct investment rose by 4.2 percent year on year to USD 129.83 billion. The Belt and Road Initiative has gained an ever-growing influence and more extensive participation, with its outcomes benefiting the whole world. Chinese enterprises and their partners from countries like Germany, the UK and France carried out cooperation in third-party markets in an orderly way. China held the China International Import Expo (CIIE), the world’s first import-themed expo, during which China showcased its firm support for trade liberalization and economic globalization, and determination to open its market wider to the world. A recent survey by US-China Business Council shows that China remains among the top priority markets for 90 percent of US companies. 95% of the surveyed enterprises said that they would maintain or increase their input in China in the coming year.
当然，受世界经济增速放缓影响，当前中国经济发展也遇到了一些突出矛盾和问题。这都是前进中遇到的问题，由于中国国情不同，它们所呈现的特点和带来的经济影响同世界其他国家类似问题有所不同。比如政府债务问题，中国政府总体债务水平仍处于安全线以内，且70%以上的政府债务是投资型且有收益的，加上中国经济依然保持较快增长、国民储蓄率超过40%，中国拥有足够的能力处理好政府债务问题。再如中国股市波动较大问题，这是因为世界经济复苏乏力、中国内部调结构去杠杆共同引发的阵痛。但与美国股市体量庞大、高位累积风险、与实体经济出现较大背离所不同的是，中国股市规模较小，只相当于GDP约70%，而美国股市规模相当于GDP的166%，中国股市波动对经济的影响小于美国股市波动对其经济的影响。
There is no denying that China is currently faced with some salient difficulties and problems in its economic development under the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth. These difficulties and problems happen as China develops. They come out with different characteristics and economic influence as compared to cases in other countries, given the different national conditions in China.
Take government debts as an example. The overall debts of Chinese government remain in safety zone, of which over 70 percent were generated from profitable investments. With the sustained fast growth of China’s economy and a high saving rate of over 40 percent, China is well capable of handling government debts. As for the volatility in China’s stock market, it’s a growing pain due to the joint effect of the world economy’s sluggish recovery and China’s attempts at adjusting economic structure and de-leveraging. The US stock market boasts a size about 166 percent of its GDP, accumulates risks at high levels and diverges considerably from the real economy. In comparison, China’s stock market is relatively small, only about 70 percent of its GDP, which means that volatility in China’s stock market has less influence on its economy.
中国经济40年高速增长的奇迹，正是在多轮“中国崩溃论”的伴奏下创造的。“中国崩溃论”之所以一再“崩溃”就是因为发表这种言论的人不是从中国经济的实际情况出发来分析问题，而仅仅从西方经济学书本出发来“套”中国经济现实。殊不知中国的国情与西方发达国家有天壤之别。当然，也有些人不是从经济的视角，而是用政治的思维看待中国经济。这样“中国崩溃论”往往只是他们的主观臆想，而非客观现实。试想，如果一个拥有6.5%以上增长率的经济体都要“崩溃”了，那么那些只有1—2%增长率的发达经济体该用什么词来形容呢？中国作为世界第二大经济体，其经济表现对世界经济发展具有举足轻重的作用。我们还是应该盼着中国经济好起来，而不要总是盼着它“崩溃”。中国经济要是真的崩溃了，对谁都没好处。
The miracle of China’s high-speed economic development over the past four decades has been accompanied by rounds of “China collapse theories”. Such theories collapsed one after another because their advocates, without being aware of the far cry between China’s national conditions and those of the developed Western countries, simply applied doctrines of Western economics to the case of China, rather than analyze China’s economic reality.
Surely, some view China’s economy from a political, rather than an economic perspective. Therefore, “China collapse theories” of this kind are imaginations rather than an objective reality. If China, a country with economic growth of over 6.5 percent were to collapse, what would it be for developed economies growing by merely 1 to 2 percent? China is the world’s second largest economy and its performance has a huge impact on the development of the world economy. Therefore, we have reasons to hope for the best for China’s economy instead of wishing it a collapse. Should China’s economy fail, there will be no winner.
