2017-07-26崔天凯大使出席“中美关系的前景与挑战”研讨会 并发表主旨演讲

尊敬的吴士存院长、洪农主任，

Chairman Wu Shicun, Director Hong Nong,

女士们，先生们，朋友们，

Ladies and Gentlemen,Dear Friends,

大家好。感谢中美研究中心邀请我参加今天的研讨会，很高兴与大家共同展望和探讨中美关系。

Good morning. I want to thank the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) for inviting me to join your discussion about the future of China-U.S. relations.

中美关系是一组战略性的关系。准确把握中美关系，要求我们不仅要知道我们从哪里来，更要看清要往哪里去；不仅要看到树木，更要看到森林。

The relationship between China and the U.S. is a strategic one. To understand this relationship, we need to know the path we have traveled, but more importantly, steer the direction we are heading to. We need to discuss the issues, but more importantly, understand the whole picture.

46年前的7月，基辛格博士开启了那次传奇的中国之行。中美老一辈领导人以非凡的战略远见打破两国关系的坚冰。近半个世纪以来，中美关系穿越了冷战的阴霾，经历了冷战后的惊涛骇浪，取得了历史性的进步。21世纪的中美关系，正面临前所未有的新机遇、新挑战。

In July forty-six years ago, Dr. Henry Kissinger made his legendary visit to China. It marked the beginning of the visionary efforts of the leaders of China and the U.S. to break the ice between our two countries and start a new relationship. In the almost half century since then, this relationship has withstood the test of the Cold War, survived the ups and downs afterwards and made historic progress. It is now facing new circumstances of the 21st century with unprecedented opportunities and challenges.

展望中美关系的未来，我们必须对一些重要问题给出答案。中美两国未来究竟应当发展什么样的关系，才能既有利于两国、又有利于世界？中美两国能否避免冲突和对抗？中美是否“注定一战”而落入“修昔底德陷阱”？中美两国能否开辟出一条国际关系新道路，让包括大国在内的世界各国都能建设互利共赢的伙伴关系，而不是零和对抗？

Looking into the future of China-U.S. relations, we have to give answers to some important questions. What kind of relationship that we should build together, in the interests of both countries, as well as of the world? Will conflict and confrontation be unavoidable between China and the U.S.? Is the "Thucydides trap" so insurmountable that China and the U.S. are destined for war? Can China and the U.S. blaze a new trail in international relations in which countries, especially the major ones, engage in win-win partnership instead of zero-sum rivalry?

这是对中美两国的历史性挑战。

This is a historic challenge to both our countries.

这是对我们能否理解当今世界现实的考验，是对我们能否把握21世纪的政治、经济、科技、社会文化潮流的考验，是对我们是否有决心和勇气、率先引领变革的考验。

It is a test on our understanding of the new realities of today's world. It is a test on our ability to grasp the major trends of the 21st century in the economy and in politics, in science and in technology, and in society and in culture. It is also a test on our determination and courage to take the lead and pioneer the transformations.

这是对中美两国的历史性机遇。

This is a historic opportunity for both our countries.

如果我们现在做出正确选择，我们将有机会为处理紧迫的国内议程赢得稳定有利的国际环境，将有机会建立中美关系的牢固基础，建立造福世界各国的更良好的世界秩序。

If we make the right choice now, we both will have the opportunity to win a stable and supportive international environment while addressing pressing domestic agenda. We will also have the opportunity to build a more solid foundation for future China-U.S. relations and for a better world order that will benefit all nations.

这是中美两国的共同责任。

This is also our shared responsibility.

这是我们对中美两国人民的责任。中国人民和美国人民都胸怀伟大的理想。当中美两国一起合作，中国梦和美国梦都将有更好的机会成为现实。

It is our responsibility to our people. The Chinese people and the American people both have great aspirations. When China and the U.S. work together, both the Chinese dream and the American dream will have a much better chance to come true.

这是我们对子孙后代的责任。我们有责任帮助后世子孙拥有更好的生活、更大的幸福和更美好的未来。

It is our responsibility to future generations. We owe it to our children and their children that they can look forward to a better life, greater happiness and a brighter future.

这也是我们对全人类的责任。中美两国是世界上最大的两个经济体，都是联合国安理会常任理事国。我们有责任共同努力，维护世界和平，促进全球繁荣，保护世界环境，维护和变革世界秩序。

It is also our responsibility to the global community. China and the U.S. are the two largest economies in the world. Both are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. We owe it to the world to join hands in safeguarding world peace, promoting global prosperity, protecting the world environment, and maintaining and reforming the world order.

因此，我们应该作出的选择是不言自明的，除此之外别无选择。中美两国应根据不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的原则，共同建设强劲、稳定的关系。中美不能再搞“冷战”，更不能打热战，也不能陷入“冷和平”。跨越陷阱的最佳方式是开辟一条新路。我们肩负的历史使命是着眼共同利益和共同未来，建立一种新型国际关系，而不是把全球主导权从一个国家移交给另一个国家，无论是通过战争还是其他方式。

Therefore, the choice before us is clear and there is actually no alternative. China and the U.S. have to work together to build a strong and stable relationship that is based on the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. We should not fight another Cold War, still less a hot war. Nor should we be content with "cold peace". The best way of overcoming a trap is to open up a new path. Our historic mission is not the transfer of global dominance from one power to another, by war or by less confrontational means. Rather, our mission is to establish a new model of international relations that are based on common interests and shared future.

特朗普总统就任以来，在中美双方共同努力下，两国关系取得重要积极进展。两国元首在海湖庄园成功会晤，不久前再次在二十国集团领导人汉堡峰会期间成功会晤，为新时期中美关系指明方向，确立建设性基调。双方已经建立外交安全对话、全面经济对话、执法及网络安全对话、社会和人文对话等四个高级别对话机制。

Since President Trump took office, China-U.S. relations have made important and positive progress thanks to the concerted efforts of the two sides. Our two presidents have set a constructive tone and pointed the way forward for China-U.S. relations with their successful meetings in Mar-a-Lago in April and in Hamburg during the G20 summit earlier this month. The two sides established four high-level dialogue mechanisms, covering diplomatic and security issues, economic relations, cultural and people-to-people exchanges, and law-enforcement and cyber security.

首轮外交安全对话于6月初举行，双方取得了重要成果。上周举行的首轮全面经济对话同样取得了成功。关于全面经济对话，我希望突出介绍一些此前媒体没有充分报道的成果。首先，中美双方通过共同努力实现了成功对话，重申双方将加强对话与协调，发展经济关系，管控可能的分歧。双方认识到，虽然对话无法立即解决所有分歧，但对抗的道路更不可取。第二，世界最大的两个经济体选择互利共赢的建设性对话，为全世界注入了难得的乐观信心。当前世界经济形势充满了不确定性，这样的再确认比任何具体协议都更能提振工商界的信心。

The first round of the Diplomatic and Security Dialogue held last month was very successful. So was the Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) last week. At the CED, the two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on a broad spectrum of topics, including macro-economic policy, the 100-Day Action Plan and a one-year plan, global economy and governance, trade and investment, services, agricultural cooperation and high-tech trade.

Among the objectives achieved by the dialogue, let me try to highlight a couple of points that may not have been sufficiently emphasized in the media. First, the efforts made by the two sides for the success of the discussion reaffirm the commitment to conduct the economic relations and manage possible differences through dialogue and coordination rather than confrontation. Both sides recognize that while dialogues may not solve all problems at once, confrontation will lead nowhere. Second, the fact that the two largest economies in the world have chosen to engage in constructive dialogue for mutual benefit gives the world the optimism it badly needs. Amid considerable uncertainties in the global economy, such reassurances will help boost business confidence more than any specific deals.

虽然中美合作取得了很多积极成果，但中美关系的发展从来不是一帆风顺的。我们必须高度重视中美关系面临的困难和挑战，全力防止任何可能导致中美关系“脱轨”的风险。我想重点谈几点：

Whereas our cooperation have yielded positive outcomes, China-U.S. relations are never free of difficulties and challenges. We should make every effort to fend off any risk that could derail China-U.S. relations. Here I wish to point out the following:

　　第一，一个中国原则。这是中美关系的政治基础，在任何情况下都不容挑战。中美三个联合公报确定了处理台湾问题的原则，美方有义务遵守这些原则。但近期出现了一些危险动向，美方再次售台武器，还有人鼓吹提升美台官方交往，甚至扬言要恢复美台军事关系。中方坚决反对这种对中国领土主权和国家统一的挑衅。在这一问题上，没有任何讨价还价的余地。

First, the One China principle. It is the political foundation of China-U.S. relations and not to be challenged under any circumstances. The three joint communiques between China and the U.S. have laid down the principles for handling the Taiwan issue, which the U.S. has the obligations to abide by.

However, there have been some alarming developments recently. U.S. arms sale to Taiwan is continuing. There are also attempts to upgrade official contact and even resume military ties between the U.S. and Taiwan. China is firmly opposed to such provocations against its sovereignty and national unity. There is absolutely no room for negotiation on this issue.

台湾问题的历史根源是美国70多年前介入了中国内战。如果当年没有美国干预，就不会有今天的台湾问题。如果70年后的今天，美国还有人企图干涉中国内政，挑战一个中国原则，只会证明他们选择了历史的错误一边。

The question of Taiwan actually started from U.S. intervention into China's civil war seventy years ago. If, seven decades later, there are still people here in the U.S. trying to interfere in China's internal affairs and challenge the one China principle, it only proves that they are on the wrong side of history.

第二，朝核问题。中美在朝核问题上既有推进无核化的共同目标和共同利益，也存在策略上的分歧。中方坚持半岛无核化，坚持维护半岛和平稳定，坚持通过对话解决朝核问题。中方提出的“双暂停”、“双轨并进”倡议是解决朝核问题的现实出路。对包括美国在内其他国家所提出的创造性、务实建议，中方也持开放态度。中美之间保持着对朝核问题的磋商。希望有关国家相向而行，共同推进解决朝核问题的外交努力。

Second, the Korean nuclear issue. China and the U.S. share the common goal of denuclearization, though we also have differences in terms of how to achieve the goal.

The Chinese side stays committed to the denuclearization, peace and stability of the Peninsula, and maintains that the Korean nuclear issue should be solved through dialogues. The "dual-track" approach and the "suspension-for-suspension" proposal put forward by the Chinese side show a realistic way out of the current impasse. We are also open to creative and practical ideas from others especially the U.S. There is ongoing consultation between China and the U.S. on the issue and we hope that all parties concerned will join the diplomatic efforts and work towards the same direction.

同时，中方坚决反对美方决定推进部署“萨德”反导系统，该系统对中方战略安全构成严重威胁。中方绝不接受美方依据国内法、对中国实体和个人搞所谓“次级制裁”。美方这些做法只会严重干扰中美在朝核问题上的合作，也使中方对美方的真实意图产生疑问。

At the same time, we are against the U.S. decision to deploy the THAAD system, which poses serious threats to China's strategic security. We also object to the "secondary sanctions" imposed by the U.S. on Chinese entities and individuals according to U.S. domestic laws. Such actions are unacceptable. They have severely impaired China-U.S. cooperation on the Korean nuclear issue, and given rise to more questions about the true intention of the U.S.

第三，南海问题。南海问题的核心是领土主权和海洋权益争议，不是中美之间的战略博弈。有关争议应由直接有关的当事国协商解决。这正是中国和其他有关当事国正在做的事情。如果美方真如其所说在领土主权争议上不持立场，就应当避免造成局势升级，就应当支持有关当事国之间的磋商。

Third, the South China Sea. The essence of the issue is disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime jurisdiction among some regional countries, not strategic rivalry between China and the U.S. Such disputes should be addressed by countries directly concerned through consultations. That is exactly what China and other countries concerned are doing now. If the U.S. truly takes no side on territorial disputes as it claims, it should refrain from escalating the situation there and support the consultations among the countries concerned.

“航行自由”概念遭到了扭曲和滥用。美国开启“航行自由行动”的最初目的是反制《联合国海洋法公约》。这样的“航行自由行动”侵害了中国的权益，加剧了地区形势紧张，与《公约》的规定和精神背道而驰。

As for the concept of freedom of navigation, it has been distorted and abused. The fact is that the U.S. freedom of navigation operations were originally designed as a counter-measure against the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Such operations in the South China Sea violate China's rights and interests, fan up tensions in the region and run counter to the letter and spirit of the Convention.

美方如果真的关心《公约》和“航行自由”，就应加入《公约》并承担应尽的国际义务，与中国合作推动完善世界海洋秩序，有效打击公海的海盗和恐怖主义活动，而不是在别国海域搞军事和政治挑衅。

If the U.S. truly cares about the UNCLOS and the freedom of navigation, it should undertake the obligations of the Convention as a contracting party, and work with us to improve international maritime order and take effective measures to counter pirates and terrorists on the high seas, rather than taking provocative military or political actions in other people's waters.

最后，我愿重申，中美两国的相互需求和共同利益远远大于彼此分歧。中美关系能在过去几十年变得更加强劲而富有活力，不是因为没有困难，而是因为我们始终胸怀大局，抓住了以建设性的方式扩大合作、管控分歧的机遇。

Having said all this, I would like to reiterate that the mutual needs and common interests between China and the U.S. far outweigh our differences. The relationship has grown stronger and more resilient over the decades not because it is free of difficulties, but because we have always kept the big picture in mind, seized opportunities to expand our cooperation and managed our differences in a constructive manner.

习近平主席在海湖庄园会晤时指出，我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好，没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏；合作是中美两国唯一正确的选择。我们希望中美两个伟大的国家，能够继续展现智慧、勇气和诚意，双方相向而行，推动两国关系沿着互利共赢的正确轨道向前发展。

President Xi Jinping said at the Mar-a-Lago summit that there are a thousand reasons for us to make China-U.S. relations work, but not a single reason to break it; and cooperation is the only right choice for China and the U.S. going forward. I hope that our two great countries will continue to demonstrate wisdom, courage and good faith, and work for further progress of China-U.S. relations on the right track of win-win cooperation.

　　谢谢大家。

Thank you.